Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Spain in recession as austerity bites deep

Austerity is Stasis/Immovable Object.  Dynamic populations are Inertia/Irresistible Force.  There's definitely going to be more trouble before stability and growth returns.  Reuters.  Excerpts:

Spain sank into recession in the first quarter and economists said spending cuts aimed at meeting strict EU deficit limits, together with a reeling bank sector, would delay any return to growth until late this year or beyond.



It is the second recession in just over two years for the euro zone's fourth largest economy and comes as the government tries to convince investors it will not need outside aid to put its house in order.


The country is caught between pressure from its European peers to fix public finances and growing domestic resistance to austerity measures that have helped push unemployment to more than double the EU average.



Ratings agency Standard & Poor's added to the country's problems with a two-notch rating downgrade last week and on Monday it chopped the credit score of 11 banks.
..
"The wheels are very clearly coming off," Jefferies economist David Owen said. "It wouldn't surprise me to see a very significant decline in GDP both in the second and third quarters this year."

..
Spain's demand for electricity, a good indicator of the strength of economic output, fell for the eighth month in a row in April, the national grid operator said.



Spanish bonds showed little reaction to the GDP report but yields have risen to around 6 percent in recent weeks. At around 7 percent, they are seen as financially unsustainable.


The IBEX share index finished April down 12.7 percent, its worst monthly showing in nearly 1-1/2 years..

The real problems haven't even begun.  Spain and Greece are just the opening act.  Followed by, in no particular order, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland.  The others(E.U. and non-E.U.) will also be sucked asunder, victims of Austerity's implosion wave.  How much pressure can France, and ultimately Germany, withstand? 

The E.U.'s individual country/collective state implosion illustrates the concept of Immovable Object/ Irresistible Force:  I'm unsure of the outcome, but the Victor will soon be known by all.  These circumstances, at present, cannot sustain.  There will be no dispute after this head-on, high-impact event.

No comments: