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Bored with the same old Korea vs. Korea, Israel vs. Gaza(for now..), Russia vs. Georgia, and U.S. vs. Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts? Foreign Policy has taken the time to compile 2011's new apocalypse all stars line up. Short answer? Most on FP's list lack the firepower to be more than a civil or regional conflict at best. The few breakouts include Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Lebanon, as each country deals with border tensions, proxy nation involvement, and the possibility (or availability by a potential ally or enemy) of escalation involving nuclear weapons.
My guess? Pakistan, drawn into war through a (possibly rogue/possibly government-sanctioned) terror attack, either involving India, the United States, or both.
S Korea: N Korea Builds Up Special Forces Excerpts:
North Korea has faster, more powerful tanks prowling the world's most heavily armed border and 200,000 special forces poised to carry out assassinations and cause havoc in South Korea, a major military review said Thursday.
Seoul's Defense Ministry report, released every two years, signals that the North's military threat has expanded..
The new document says the North intends to rely on its nuclear program, special forces, long-range artillery, submarines and cyber warfare forces as a counterweight to South Korea's high-tech conventional military.
North Korea has 200,000 special operations forces, the report says, an increase from 180,000 in the ministry's last assessment in 2008. Those forces are aimed at carrying out assassinations and infiltrating and disrupting key facilities in South Korea, it said.
So, while nothing has changed and no one has backed down, there seems to be a perception that, since no action has occurred, tension has decreased. I disagree. Looking at this conflict in terms of, say, a puzzle, more pieces keep sliding into place, and with each connected piece, a larger, clearer view of the situation emerges. If a match does indeed drop onto this powderkeg, the explosion will be remarkable.
Including but not limited to two thirds of Missouri, all of Arkansas, and all of Louisiana, and surrounding states.. This forecast comes from weather wunderkind Kevin Martin, so if you live in the affected area, pay attention. This might be nothing, or this might be something, and New Year's Eve is a night when everyone has their guard down. I think Kevin's really intelligent, but I live in the red zone, so I'm really hoping he's wrong. Tornadoes on New Year's Eve? That's some bad juju, huh?
Happy New Year!
Artfully phrased economic Dooooooom! From Gonzalo Lira. Excerpts:
To be sure, there were other important stories in 2010—the Mortgage Mess, Wikileaks, Wayne Rooney. But these three issues—auguries of EMU collapse, successful Fed monetization, and commodity price rises—are the ones that mattered on a macro-economic level this past year.
In 2011, every other financial story will be either a cause or consequence of one of these three issues: Guaranteed.
Europe..
Europe is in deep shit—there’s really no polite way to say it.
All of the EU, really(Germany and France also. Indirectly, at the moment, but they are not insulated from events.) but specifically, Spain..
Not “Spain is in trouble”—that’s obvious, but that’s not my point: Spain is trouble. Trouble for the German banks that own so much of the Spanish debt. Trouble for Germany, which is propping up its insolvent banks (What, you think German politicians are any less craven than American politicians?). Spain is trouble for the European Union, for what a German banking crisis might mean for the EU as a whole and as an institution.
More than anything, Spain is trouble for the European Financial Stability Facility, because Spain is too big to be saved—and there’s really no way to finesse that hard fact.
..
How the EU and the ECB handle an eventual Spanish sovereign debt crisis will determine the very future of the European Union.
Because there will be a Spanish sovereign debt crisis—it’s inevitable. The Spanish balance sheet is not improving fast enough, even with so-called “austerity” measures, because even though the Spanish government might be cutting spending, the comunidades autónomas—roughly analogous to states or regions—are expanding their budgets in order to take up the slack, and thereby increasing the Spanish deficit.
..
So when Spain goes into crisis—which should take place no later than August 2011, and perhaps as early as this coming March—the European Union’s collective and institutional reaction to this crisis event will determine whether a smaller, healthier European Monetary Union continues to exist, or whether the whole concept of EMU is ripped to shreds by events.
Which brings us to the United States..
There is a limit to sympathy: You can feel sorry for someone—but only up to a point. Insofar as the United States’ fiscal situation is concerned, that point has been reached, at least for me: I can no longer feel sorry for the American people.
Americans want more services and entitlements, but with less taxes—and then they’re all surprised when their local, state and Federal governments cross the edge of insolvency, and into the nightmare land of feverishly staving off bankruptcy.
During 2010, the Federal government debt finally crossed the 100% of GDP mark—and continued rising non-stop. Actually, the debt’s growth accelerated. Why? Because the Bush tax cuts of 2001—implemented when there was an expectation of surplus, with clear sunset provisions, and no massive war expenditures—were extended by the mindless Republican Congress and the spineless President, Barack Obama.
And:
In late 2010, we finally started to notice something which has been festering for years, like one of those yucky worms that winds up eating your brains and driving you mad: The financial condition of the U.S. States and municipalities—they’re bankrupt.
For fiscal year 2010, the states’ combined budget shortfall is $191 billion. Of that figure, $68 billion is offset by the Recovery Act—Obama’s stimulus. Currently, the 2011 combined deficit of the States will be in the neighborhood of $160 billion—but that doesn’t seem credible, considering the ongoing unemployment. Regardless, $59 billion of those will be offset by the Recovery Act—which still leaves at least $100 billion up in the air.
However you look at it, the States have a huge collective hole in their budgets. And this hole is going to get worse, before it gets any better—just like the Federal government’s massive yearly deficit.
Which brings us to Commodities:
Commodities rose drastically all throughout 2010: Every single commodity class, every single one of them rising by double digit percentage points—at least.
..
I know I have the reputation for being the crazed hyperinflationista—but you don’t have to buy any of my dollar-hyperinflation arguments to acknowledge the fact that, a., commodity prices have experienced a sustained and enormous rise in their prices, and b., this sustained rise in the prices of commodities will inevitably hit consumers at all levels of the economy.
Therefore, I would expect food, heating oil and gas prices to rise considerably over the winter of 2011—that is, now. This will be a knee to the ‘nads of the American economy—indeed, to the world economies.
There’s really not much more to say, about the issue: A sharp rise in consumer spending on essentials would shove the American and world economies firmly back into recession, this time potentially with negative growth.
What happens after that? It depends on the fools at the helm of the good ship S.S. Depression II.
Lira's bottom line?
So bottom line: It’s looking like 2011 is gonna suck. But hey! At least two of these three story-lines are gonna come to their respective climaxes this year—so 2011 might well suck, but at least it’ll be exciting!
I'm wondering how each of these huge economic phenomenons will effect each other. Any one of these three in stronger economic times would influence, drag, or overlap into the other sets of events. With each of these world engines at critical and vulnerable points, what will happen if they all seize up close to the same time? Could the overall effects be so much more than the sum of its monetary parts? The cynic in me says "Of course."
From Canada dot com.. Excerpts:
PORT-AU-PRINCE - The crisis gripping cholera-ridden Haiti in the wake of disputed elections and a debilitating earthquake could devolve into civil war, the nation's former interim leader said Tuesday.
Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council promised a recount of the November 28 election ballots after official results set off charges of fraud and rioting by angry supporters of a losing candidate.
"This electoral process, at this current stage, could lead to civil war. We will all be both responsible for this situation and its victims," warned Boniface Alexandre, who ruled as interim president from 2004 to 2006.
"I have a suggestion: all of the parties — those in power and the opposition — have something in common, and that's Haiti. We must find a solution,"
The world has forgotten Haiti. If the current situation continues devolving, though, the country will be back in the headlines. And, although the blossoming cholera epidemic is terrible, the "sensational video" from Haiti's upcoming, inevitable civil war will be the world's media re-introduction to Haiti in its Top 20 bid for World's Worst Godforsaken Hellhole. Although it might be the worst country in the Western Hemisphere(maybe it's Bolivia..), it isn't the worst in the world..
It's a testament how horrible and shitty other countries are, as Haiti really should be as bad as it gets..
Who is Julian Assange, and who does he work for? That's easy. He's obviously an asset of Israel.
And he's also, obviously, a Nazi.
The mythology of Julian Assange continues to grow in opposite directions. Assange is a fascinating character, but I find the reactions and behavior of the opposing forces he has created equally as fascinating. Palin as Lightning Rod? Fat fuckin' chance. Assange is the one who incites or inspires, and it is what he's created and creating that is the informational/technological/global political zeitgeist of our time, the time directly before our arrival at The Crossroads of Modern History..
By Bruce Sterling for Webstock. Xymphora's comment on Sterling's article is correct; "Bruce Sterling on Assange is worth reading but it isn't anything near as good as it ought to be."
Sterling makes some terrific observations regarding the rapidly morphing monolith in progress Julian Assange, the process of diplomacy, hacker mentality, the real difficulty in his future prosecution, and some other thought provoking perspectives(Like the incompatible notions of transparency and discretion. Sounds simple enough, right? Think about how both are equally valued in our political system. WikiLeaks has forced, sometime in the future, debate about which we value more, or how to more efficiently compromise both these principles to the maximum displeasure of most citizens..) that will effect policy, politics, and technology from here on out.
My problem with Sterling's work is seemingly at first tangential (And can be partially overlooked due to how many word perfect summations he offers), but still, it bothers me. He dismisses Bradley Manning's motivations and technical ability fairly casually, as he has met many other hackers from similar backgrounds(Sterling is from that community, too), applying a general cyber/geek personality (consumed with boredom and a bit unstable) overview to Manning, but I disagree. While his assessment of Assange feels right(Based on everything I've personally seen..), Sterling seems too jaded to acknowledge Manning as "True Believer," (as opposed to simply bored..)and and fundamentally misunderstands why Manning did what he did.(As an aside, it's not hard to find reference to Manning's consistent-since-childhood, unique, moral resolute-ness, which is why Sterling's misfire is so baffling: With a little research, a completely different portrait of Manning appears, less desperate, less awkward, more concerned with the essence(s) of Right and Wrong (I also find it interesting he's a Sagittarius..) than Sterling bothers to admit or convey. Probably Sterling is not familiar with this type(as they probably few in number in his circles of association), he cannot contend with the idea that Bradley Manning believed (as True Believers would be liable to believe) leaking these cables was the morally correct thing to do. While Sterling understands Assange, Manning and his motives eludes him.
This is not necessarily important to Sterling's narrative, which ultimately describes Julian Assange as: Ray Croc, McDonald's-izing the process of mass distribution of information/leaks, the human embodiment of the Internet, the global diplomatic homewrecker who has forever altered how our State Department proceeds and is seen, and how, despite his cynical expectations, Assange's actions could have a perverting, un-intended consequences effect on the U.S. and global populace regarding State to State interaction. Sterling's understanding of (and empathy for) Assange, clearly stated:
I don’t say these cruel things about Julian Assange because I feel distant from him, but, on the contrary, because I feel close to him. I don’t doubt the two of us would have a lot to talk about. I know hordes of men like him; it’s just that they are programmers, mathematicians, potheads and science fiction fans instead of fiercely committed guys who aspire to topple the international order and replace it with subversive wikipedians.
..
Well… every once in a while, a situation that’s one-in-a-thousand is met by a guy who is one in a million. It may be that Assange is, somehow, up to this situation. Maybe he’s gonna grow in stature by the massive trouble he has caused. Saints, martyrs, dissidents and freaks are always wild-cards, but sometimes they’re the only ones who can clear the general air. Sometimes they become the catalyst for historical events that somehow had to happen. They don’t have to be nice guys; that’s not the point. Julian Assange did this; he direly wanted it to happen. He planned it in nitpicky, obsessive detail. Here it is; a planetary hack.
I don’t have a lot of cheery hope to offer about his all-too-compelling gesture, but I dare to hope he’s everything he thinks he is, and much, much, more.
I have problems with Sterling's assessment because he assigns the future power of the entire WikiLeaks phenomenon to Assange and a cynical legion of hackers just like him, and therefore can't see or factor the serendipitous power of other True Believers, how they will(and have) react(ed), and how the other Bradley Manning's of this unfolding event will influence the global direction of what these two very different men have wrought.
What- Will happen- Next?
Comforting, constructive words from Robert Wilkinson at Aquarius Papers.
Pat Robertson Wants the Devil's Weed Decriminalized. (From Gawker) What's next? Cloverfield monsters running for Office? I thought that would be as likely as last week's announcement. Excerpts:
Whatever happened to the culture warriors? Everyone is either a gay soldier or a black president nowadays. Or perhaps even a pot decriminalizing televangelist? This is old Pat Robertson, now. Pat Robertson is sick of the War on Marijuana.
"We're locking up people that have taken a couple puffs of marijuana and next thing you know they've got 10 years with mandatory sentences," Robertson continued. "These judges just say, they throw up their hands and say nothing we can do with these mandatory sentences. We've got to take a look at what we're considering crimes and that's one of 'em.
"I'm ... I'm not exactly for the use of drugs, don't get me wrong, but I just believe that criminalizing marijuana, criminalizing the possession of a few ounces of pot, that kinda thing it's just, it's costing us a fortune and it's ruining young people. Young people go into prisons, they go in as youths and come out as hardened criminals. That's not a good thing."
I don't fucking know who this guy is. I don't want to complain or jinx this development in any way, but seriously: Who is this?
This turn of events begs more than one question.. How long has Pat Robertson felt this way? Why has he chosen December, 2010 (as opposed to, say, October or November, 2010) to publicly voice his support on restructuring marijuana laws? Will his religious contemporaries agree and follow, or disagree, and totally disavow him?
For most of society, this is a curiosity, a cool turn of events, an "are you fucking kidding me?" event.. But for Social Conservatives and Evangelicals, this is HUGE. I'm sure the denouncements are already beginning, but so are the beginnings of Religious Right Wing (as a voting bloc) support for the ultimate legalization of Marijuana. Robertson's stance will be hotly debated, within many religious and political circles for years to come. This is big.
As despicable the man is, Pat Robertson might ultimately be the man who defeated the War on Marijuana.
By "Dingo," I mean "sinkhole," and by "Ate my baby!" I mean, destroyed a back yard in about five minutes..
Excerpts: About 3:30 p.m. Thursday, Luis Hernandez felt the soil trembling beneath his feet.
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He heard air coming up, "Whooo, whooo, whooo," Orpha approximated the noise, as if underground air was rushing to the surface.
Luis knows because he looked at the clock on his phone – in just five minutes, a 100-foot wide sinkhole opened in the sand, gulping pots with palm trees and ligustrum hedges and catley guava.
By Friday, they'd rescued all the nursery plants from the one-acre plot, moving them to the adjoining nine acres. But the hole had swelled 20 feet wider, and at 4 p.m. Friday, the circular mouth was an estimated 140 feet across.
"This morning, there was just a little water in it," she said. But by late afternoon, water was three feet deep and rising in the center of the hole.
"We have a pond," she laughed.
This one's stopped growing--for now. But sinkholes are serious business. Just ask the people of Guatemala City.. Sinkhole? More like an entrance to Hell..
Tired of reading about conspiracy theories, the webbots and astrology? Me neither, but I like music, too, so here's a nice sampling of critic's picks for the best of 2010. Great stuff out there, and a lot of these sites have samples! I probably lost close to four hours reading and listening! Take a break: Indulge! The planned vaporization of Korea and upcoming global economic collapse can wait.. It's time for some music..
Big winners (consistently on most lists): Janelle Monae, Kanye West, Flying Lotus, Beach House., Robyn. Deerhunter, Arcade Fire, and Big Boi. I've left out at least 30 other bands, but there's just not enough time..
(Also, each link is from a different site. Represented are: New Music Express, Pop Matters, Rolling Stone, Spin, Pitchfork, and The Onion.
There's so much more out there, but I'll let you do the work, as it's not really "work." Enjoy!
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