Tuesday, September 25, 2012

China/Japan FutureWar: Now Taiwan Wants In!

Now Taiwan Is Also Claiming The Senkaku Islands: 70 Fishing Boats Set Sail To Stake Claim.  The only sane motivation I can think of here is that this is a defensive move.  Taiwan wants to be able to take a shot at whoever might take a shot at them, or they don't want to be "innocent bystanders" if the dispute goes down twisted.

Imagine any John Woo climactic gunfight between three entities, all holding two guns, each pointing at everyone else.  The huge difference?  No one has fired even a single shot: Not yet.  So, what we got here is, for the moment, a peaceful but tense Taiwanian Standoff..  Zero Hedge:

If you thought it was complicated when "only" China and Japan were disputing the recent escalation in property rights over who owns those three particular rock in the East China Sea, to be henceforth called the Senkaku Islands for simplicity's sake because things are about to get far more confusing, here comes Taiwan, aka the Republic of China, not to be confused with the People's Republic of China for the simple reason that the latter officially asserts itself to be the sole legal representation of China and actively claims Taiwan to be under its sovereignty, denying the status and existence of ROC as a sovereign state (yet one which benefits from US backing), to also stake its claim over the disputed Senkaku Islands. (Epic run-on sentence, yeah?) It has done so in a very confusing manner: by replicating what it thinks China did some days ago when an "armada" of 1000 fishing boats set sail in an unknown direction and which the trigger happy media immediately assumed was in direction Senkaku. It subsequently turned out that this was not the case and as we reported, "China's fishing season stops every year in June-September in the East China Sea, where the islands are located. This year, the ban was lifted on Sunday." In short the (PR)China fishing boat amrada was not headed toward the Senkakus. Taiwan however did not get the memo, and as NKH reports, "several dozen Taiwanese fishing boats have set sail for the disputed Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, to claim access to their fishing grounds."


So to summarize: a country which (PR)China claims does not exist and is under its own sovereign control, has replicated what it thought was (PR)China's strategic move to reclaim the Senkaku Islands (which was nothing of the sort), and is sending its own fishing boat armada to reclaim islands whose ownership has sent Japan and (PR)China on the verge of more than mere diplomatic warfare. The only thing that could make this any more confusing is if someone discovered title deeds ceding ownership of the Senkakus to Japan, the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China at the same time, and signed by Linda Green. 

If this scenario wasn't such an expressway to World War 3(or 4), it'd be hilarious.   Based on the action so far, they all want to be perceived as wanting to fight much more than they really do.  I'm hoping a "diplomatic solution" is in the near-term future.  But, as with anything else during this Grand Irrationality, shit can spiral out of control really fast. It just takes one mistake, and everything changes..

How To Deal With The General Weirdness of The Grand Irrationality


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