Tuesday, June 21, 2011

If Greece Defaults, What Happens to Portugal and Ireland—and Spain?

From Gonzalo LiraYet another Catastrophe befalling mankind in the beginning days of its expansion.  Excerpts:

So if Greece goes down the tubes, Ireland and Portugal would almost immediately need a bailout: They would not be able to borrow on the open markets the money they need in order to continue funding their governments.

That is, if Greece defaults, the Irish and the Portuguese would suddenly find themselves without the money to fund elementary schools, ambulances, sewer systems, power grids, etc.

So! What is the European leadership doing?

Dithering! They are not approving a Greek bailout—and they are not giving a clear signal that Greece will be booted out of the eurozone, but Ireland and Portugal will be protected. In other words, the European finance ministers who are supposed to “stabilize the markets” are creating the conditions of uncertainty in the markets—

—which only hurts Ireland and Portugal.

Now, why is defending (financially speaking) Ireland and Portugla essential?

In a word, Spain.
And:
It’s as simple as that. Spain is too big—roughly half the size of Germany. If Spain goes, it will drag down all of the European continent with it—that is, bank failures (on both sides of the pond), a crash of the eurozone as a currency, massive unemployment, a European economy that would grind to a halt—

—basically, the worst parts of the Great Depression.

It doesn't look like Greece as-it-is-now will remain much longer.  The inevitability of financial "obligations" versus the needs of the populace will continue to escalate towards violence towards whatever outcome eventually occurs.  It's like watching an Impact in slooow motion.  Greece is Happening, and the implications of Greece Happening have already begun, too.

And now they're protesting in Spain, while the crisis continues to deepen.

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