Monday, January 31, 2011

Egypt: Is The Worm Indeed Turning?

Egypt set for mass protest as army rules out force Good news. Will that promise hold? Excerpts:

Egypt's army gave a powerful boost to the country's opposition last night by announcing that it would not use force to silence "legitimate" demands for democratic reforms in the Arab world's largest nation.

On the eve of a million-strong
protest planned for today and amid multiplying signs that the US is moving steadily closer to ditching its long-standing ally, Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, now has few options left.
..
The military's statement, reported by the state-run Mena news agency, said: "The presence of the army in the streets is for your sake and to ensure your safety and wellbeing. The armed forces will not resort to use of force against our great people." It referred to the "legitimate demands of honourable citizens".

It was not clear whether the pledge not to use force was intended to draw the sting from protests or signal a weakening of support for the president, who relies heavily on the armed forces as the guarantor of the regime and its stability.
..
Obama met Middle East experts yesterday as his administration tried to find a path to a post-Mubarak era that continues to serve its interests, including ensuring that Egypt maintains its 30-year peace treaty with Israel. US hopes are solidifying around the reformist Mohamed ElBaradei, despite his difficult relationship with the US after he undermined Washington's claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction when he was head of the IAEA, and his criticism of Obama's failure to ask Mubarak to resign.
It's got to be eating the West's(and Israel's) lunch that, despite their earlier hesitations into denunciations, this uprising is still happening.

Tony Blair, envoy for the Middle East Quartet, stopped short of calling for Mubarak to step down: "Change will happen," he said. "You can't put the genie back in the bottle now." William Hague, the foreign secretary, said after meeting EU colleagues: "We are setting down what should happen [in Egypt] in terms of values, process and institutions,
but not trying to dictate precise timetable of elections."

Analysts believe that a likely outcome of the crisis is that Mubarak will eventually be persuaded to stand down by his closest advisers, including the army top brass and Suleiman. The US has close links to the Egyptian military.

Google(!) and Twitter(ugh--!!)come down on the side of the people!

Egyptians gather for mass march to oust Mubarak Here's the most interesting portion, as it seems to represent a policy/momentum/perceptual shift:

The military, which has run Egypt since it toppled the monarchy in 1952, will be the key player in deciding who replaces him and some expect it to retain significant power while introducing enough reforms to defuse the protests.

"At this point Suleiman represents the army, not Mubarak,"said Fawaz Gerges at the London School of Economics.

Not all the army, though. Maybe the factions tied to Mubarak, but not all the Military. The Army is made up of poor Egyptians--the people. The new Vice President, Omar Suleiman,
likes discipline. You think these people don't know that?

Our beloved Revolutionary Sweethearts: The Bangles





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