Friday, April 23, 2010

Hyperinflation Looms – The Dollar Arrives at Its ‘Havenstein Moment’

Economic devastation soon!
Excerpts: How is deflation possible when crude oil prices have more than doubled since their post-Lehman crash low? Or more broadly, how can there be deflation when the price index of 19 commodities compiled by the Commodity Research Bureau rose 47% during this same period? It cannot of course, which means there is no deflation.

The ongoing decline in the purchasing power of the dollar has been masked by wealth destruction as over-priced assets like houses fall back to realistic levels. There is also the problem that the mainstream media broadcasts only the government calculated CPI (Consumer Price Index. GDP is Gross Domestic Product), which is an inaccurate measure of the dollar’s eroding purchasing power.

-And-

Rothbard provides his usual brilliant insight to explain what happens once the “Havenstein moment’ is reached. There are two alternatives.

“If the government tightens its own belt and stops printing (or otherwise creating) new money, then inflationary expectations will eventually be reversed, and prices will fall once more – thus relieving the money shortage by lowering prices. But if government follows its own inherent inclination to counterfeit and appeases the clamor by printing more money so as to allow the public’s cash balances to ‘catch up’ to prices, then the country is off to the races. Money and prices will follow each other upward in an ever-accelerating spiral, until finally prices ‘run away’…[i.e., hyperinflate]”

Weimar Germany took the second alternative.

And, sadly..

The dollar has now reached its ‘Havenstein moment’. Will policymakers follow the prudent advice of Murray Rothbard and ‘tighten its belt’? Or like Herr Havenstein, will Mr. Bernanke continue to ‘print’?

No need to ponder these two alternatives. The Federal Reserve must ‘print’, for one reason. Despite the noble goals assigned to it in textbooks and offered in Congressional hearings, the Federal Reserve exists for only one reason – to make sure the federal government gets all the dollars it wants to spend, which consequently has put the dollar on a hyperinflationary course.

Bottom line: By following its inherent purpose, the Fed will print us into hyperinflation. We will knowingly follow the failed economic model of the Weimar Republic and expect different results. Things do not look good, even in the short term, here in Universe "B.."

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