Middle East Rumors

Interesting little thread from Lunatic Outpost.  Real time rumors, speculation, propaganda, and some genuine nuggets of information all included here.  Please remember the truth is always not only the first casualty of war, but also of the pre-war run up..  Please exercise discretion when reading!

If The World Wasn't Imploding, This Would Be Huge News..

Georgian President Lauds Moscow Terror Attack as ‘Payback’ for 2008 War Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili rockets to the top of the "Crazy and suicidal enough to fuck with Putin/ Medvedev" chart today. I guess the President outgrew his "Tie-eating" phase(The kooky starts at 1:01).. Look for escalation at the Russian/Georgian border shortly. First link excerpts:

While most of the world reacted with the predictable combination of shock and eagerness for more security measures in the wake of Monday’s suicide bombing in the Moscow Domodedovo Airport, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is openly cheering it.
According to Saakashvili, the bombing was “payback” for the brief Russo-Georgian War of 2008, and that he had recently told Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that he would face “payback for his country for supporting separatists.”

Wow. Saakashvili really enjoys starring in his own International/ Political version of Kenny Rogers Jackass.. From The Independent/ UK

Mr Saakashvili and the Russian leadership have exchanged regular insults since the 2008 war between the countries over the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but his comments are likely to enrage Moscow, coming so soon after the blast at Domodedovo Airport that killed 35 people.
..
"I discussed this personally with Vladimir Putin a while ago. I said to him that the payback for his country for supporting separatists would be that violence would come back to hit them as well," Mr Saakashvili said. "Putin said, 'No, if anyone tries anything against us, we shall crush them like cockroaches,' while jabbing and twisting his thumb on the table in front him."

Before his interview with The Independent, the Georgian President made similar comments in a televised question-and-answer session. "Russia has a political mentality which is on the level of a reptile, like a crocodile ready to swallow you up," Mr Saakashvili said. There is a well-documented personal enmity between Mr Saakashvili and Mr Putin. The Georgian President once said that talking to Mr Putin was "like somebody standing with an axe at your head and saying: "Don't worry, everything's OK, close your eyes and relax.'"
And:
Yesterday, Mr Putin said preliminary investigations into Monday's blast suggested that the bomber did not come from Chechnya. It was unclear whether he meant he had no links to the North Caucasus, or was from a neighbouring republic such as Dagestan. He also ruled out negotiation with terrorist groups.

Saakashvili's almost gleeful remarks not only requires Putin to respond, but is, if not this close to an admission of Georgian involvement, or at least facillitation to the bombing. Or, maybe not.. And Putin just ruled out Chechnya. On purpose or not, President Saakashvili now has the complete attention of Vladimir Putin; again.

I wonder what flavor of tie goes with Provoked Russian Invasion, Winter, 2011?

This Week In Korea Conflict.

South Korea and Japan discuss first-ever military agreements

Pentagon Chief Huddles With Allies About NKorea

U.S. Recruits Japan As Global Military Partner

North Korea Threatens America with Long-Range Missiles

North Korea calls for unconditional talks with South Korea

North Korea's military: a bad hand played well

So, things are pretty much the same: Gigantic powderkeg, no real spark -- yet.

While We Were Bird Watching..

North Korea made some peaceful gestures to end the latest Korean crisis, but South Korea's not buying it.. Excerpts:

North Korea called Wednesday for "unconditional and early'' talks with rival South Korea to put an end to months of tensions. Seoul quickly dismissed the offer as insincere and said it's waiting for an apology for two deadly attacks blamed on Pyongyang.
It's rare for North Korea to issue such a statement addressed to South Korea and it came as the U.S. envoy on the North was in the region to discuss the standoff. Earlier in the day, Stephen Bosworth sought to calm fears of conflict on the peninsula.
..
But the North has made some conciliatory moves recently. On New Year's Day, the government issued a lengthy statement calling for warmer ties and the resumption of joint projects with South Korea. Pyongyang, eager for food and fuel assistance, has said it wants stalled international aid-for-nuclear-disarmament talks to restart. Washington and Seoul have said the North must first fulfill past nuclear disarmament commitments.
On Monday, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak vowed to increase his country's defenses but made clear the door was open for talks with Pyongyang and was willing to enhance economic cooperation between the rivals. On Wednesday, North Korean officials responded with their own call for negotiations.
"We are ready to meet anyone anytime and anywhere, letting bygones be bygones, if he or she is willing to go hands in hands with us,'' said a statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. It added that history has shown that such confrontations can only lead to an "armed clash and war.''
South Korea's Unification Ministry immediately rebuffed the overtures late Wednesday.
"We don't consider it as a sincere offer of dialogue,'' ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo said. North Korea first must apologize for the two attacks and take "sincere'' steps toward nuclear disarmament, she said.

It would be a real shame if the final diplomatic straw that starts World War Three is "Your apology wasn't sincere enough." I realize the South is pulling an Alpha bluff, and that it's consistent with their "take no shit" philosophical stance towards the North, but at some point, this will backfire when North decides to not back down. Then, the whole peninsula will light up, and quick. There has to be a better solution to a potentially global nuclear conflict than the equivalent of two bullies staging intermittent pissing contests.

Next Year's Wars

Bored with the same old Korea vs. Korea, Israel vs. Gaza(for now..), Russia vs. Georgia, and U.S. vs. Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts?  Foreign Policy has taken the time to compile 2011's new apocalypse all stars line up.  Short answer?  Most on FP's list lack the firepower to be more than a civil or regional conflict at best.  The few breakouts include Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Lebanon, as each country deals with border tensions, proxy nation involvement, and the possibility (or availability by a potential ally or enemy) of escalation involving nuclear weapons.

My guess?  Pakistan, drawn into war through a (possibly rogue/possibly government-sanctioned) terror attack, either involving India, the United States, or both. 

Korean Update, New Year's Eve Edition..

S Korea: N Korea Builds Up Special Forces  Excerpts:

North Korea has faster, more powerful tanks prowling the world's most heavily armed border and 200,000 special forces poised to carry out assassinations and cause havoc in South Korea, a major military review said Thursday.

Seoul's Defense Ministry report, released every two years, signals that the North's military threat has expanded..

The new document says the North intends to rely on its nuclear program, special forces, long-range artillery, submarines and cyber warfare forces as a counterweight to South Korea's high-tech conventional military.

North Korea has 200,000 special operations forces, the report says, an increase from 180,000 in the ministry's last assessment in 2008. Those forces are aimed at carrying out assassinations and infiltrating and disrupting key facilities in South Korea, it said.

So, while nothing has changed and no one has backed down, there seems to be a perception that, since no action has occurred, tension has decreased.  I disagree.  Looking at this conflict in terms of, say, a puzzle, more pieces keep sliding into place, and with each connected piece, a larger, clearer view of the situation emerges.  If a match does indeed drop onto this powderkeg, the explosion will be remarkable.

File Under: "In Hindsight, This Proved To Be A Catastrophic Mistake.."

S.Korea army to hold largest ever live-fire drill.  This isn't Monday's news, either.  This one's scheduled for Thursday..  Excerpt:

The drill, involving artillery, fighter jets and the largest number of personnel in a peace-time exercise, comes after the South's live-fire artillery exercise on Monday on the island near the tensely guarded sea border and is likely to infuriate Pyongyang.

Adding to the strangeness/tension of this unfolding crisis, Jesus jumped into the fray..  From South Korean troops prepare for possible North Korean attack..

Troops also were on alert at the border where the South turned on the lights of a 100-foot-tall (30-meter-tall) steel Christmas tree that would be visible to North Koreans living near the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas.

South Korea had stopped the longtime practice of lighting the huge Christmas tree — seen by secular North Korea as a propaganda move — years ago when it halted routine propaganda campaigns during a period of warming ties.

But today the lights will go on again at the western mountain peak known as Aegibong for the first time in seven years, officials said.

Looks like South Korea fooled both Bill Richardson AND Wolf Blitzer!

And:  Is it a problem of translation, disdain, or disgust?

Example one:  A caption for a picture of the Christmas tree states, "A fairy-light tower on Aegibong Peak in Gimpo, Gyeonggi Province, on the western frontier, is switched back on Tuesday for the first time in seven years."
Also:
The South Korean military remains on high alert as a floodlight tower on Aegibong Peak in Gimpo, Gyeonggi Province, only 3 km from North Korea, was switched back on Tuesday.


Heh.  Fairy-light tower.  North Koreans are funny with their disrespect. 
Kinda short answer regarding Thursday's military exercises?  No matter what anyone says, there is no de-escalation of tension. 

Shorter answer?  Doom back on. 

Wait A Minute: Who Blinked?

South Korea went ahead and held live fire exercises..  And North Korea still states that they'll retaliate on their timetable, not anyone else's..  And they'll also allow UN Inspectors back in the country.

No one blinked.  The strategic ball belongs to North Korea, at the moment.  This comment from  Godlike is correct: 

"You seriously think that just because the drill has ended then that is it? With all the meetings and concerns over this, I feel there is unfortunately a lot more to come. This is only the start of it."



North Korea will very likely retaliate in some fashion.
It is just a question of when and how much.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1197780

Indeed, this is a chess game not paintball and it is now their move.


Monday, December 20, 2010, the Korean Peninsula remains on the brink of war.  Chips are falling, right now.  Where said Chips end up and what that ultimately means remains to be seen.

Korean Update-Or-At Least Someone's Making Money..

Dollar Rises Against Euro on Prospect U.S. Payrolls Expanded

North Korea may attack the province that surrounds Seoul, the Tokyo Shimbun newspaper said, citing an unidentified person who quoted an official in the communist nation. South Korea will hold artillery drills on Yeonpyeong, the island shelled by the North last week, on Dec. 6, television broadcaster MBN reported today, citing government officials it didn’t identify.

Japan and the U.S. will conduct a joint military exercise from tomorrow until Dec. 10.

“Geopolitical risk appears to be returning a bit on worries that North Korea may attack the South,” said Satoshi Okagawa, head of the foreign-exchange and money trading group in Singapore at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., a unit of Japan’s third-largest banking group. “There’s some safe-haven buying of the yen and the dollar.”

And:

The won strengthened for a third day as funds based abroad bought $373 million more Korean shares than they sold yesterday, the biggest net purchases in almost three weeks, exchange data show. The Kospi index of shares posted its highest close since Nov. 10 on optimism that tensions between North and South Korea are easing.

“We haven’t seen North Korean retaliation, which they pledged to do after the attack, and the lack of negative events let risk aversion subside,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “Positive sentiment globally boosted appetite for risk assets like the Korean won.”

US, Japan begin war games; China denounces drills

In an ongoing show of force following a deadly North Korean attack on a front-line island, the U.S. and Japan began one of their biggest-ever military exercises Friday, mobilizing more than 44,000 troops, hundreds of aircraft and a U.S. supercarrier.

The drills come just after the U.S. and South Korea concluded maneuvers in the Yellow Sea. The exercises brought immediate criticism from China, which is wary of having foreign navies off its shores and has been increasingly assertive over large swaths of waters in the south and east China seas, where some of the drills would take place.
..
The Nov. 23 North Korean attack killed two South Korean marines and two civilians on Yeonpyeong Island, a tiny enclave of civilians and military bases located near a disputed maritime border.

The attack has heightened tensions in the region and renewed fears of a bigger clash breaking out that could draw in neighboring countries, including Japan, where about 50,000 U.S. troops are based under a security pact.

South Korea’s New Defense Chief Threatens Air Strikes on North

South Korea’s new defense minister vowed retaliation that would include airstrikes if North Korea makes another attack following last month’s deadly artillery bombardment.

“I will mobilize all combat capabilities available to severely punish the enemy,” Kim Kwan Jin, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said today at a confirmation hearing. “I will surely use planes. This is a matter of self-defense.”

This may be a sign that the crisis is cooling a bit..

“The latest tough talk seemed to be mostly aimed at deterring North Korea from further provocations,” said Kim Yong Hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul. “There is only so much South Korea can do in terms of tough actions when there’s little assurance of how far North Korea will go.”

Or maybe cooling not so much..

A news report says North Korea now has more multiple-launch rockets capable of hitting Seoul.

Yonhap news agency says North Korea has increased its arsenal of rockets by 100 pieces to about 5,200. Yonhap cited an unidentified South Korean military source.

The agency says the rockets have a range of 37 miles (60 kilometers), putting Seoul within striking distance.