While We Were Bird Watching..

North Korea made some peaceful gestures to end the latest Korean crisis, but South Korea's not buying it.. Excerpts:

North Korea called Wednesday for "unconditional and early'' talks with rival South Korea to put an end to months of tensions. Seoul quickly dismissed the offer as insincere and said it's waiting for an apology for two deadly attacks blamed on Pyongyang.
It's rare for North Korea to issue such a statement addressed to South Korea and it came as the U.S. envoy on the North was in the region to discuss the standoff. Earlier in the day, Stephen Bosworth sought to calm fears of conflict on the peninsula.
..
But the North has made some conciliatory moves recently. On New Year's Day, the government issued a lengthy statement calling for warmer ties and the resumption of joint projects with South Korea. Pyongyang, eager for food and fuel assistance, has said it wants stalled international aid-for-nuclear-disarmament talks to restart. Washington and Seoul have said the North must first fulfill past nuclear disarmament commitments.
On Monday, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak vowed to increase his country's defenses but made clear the door was open for talks with Pyongyang and was willing to enhance economic cooperation between the rivals. On Wednesday, North Korean officials responded with their own call for negotiations.
"We are ready to meet anyone anytime and anywhere, letting bygones be bygones, if he or she is willing to go hands in hands with us,'' said a statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. It added that history has shown that such confrontations can only lead to an "armed clash and war.''
South Korea's Unification Ministry immediately rebuffed the overtures late Wednesday.
"We don't consider it as a sincere offer of dialogue,'' ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo said. North Korea first must apologize for the two attacks and take "sincere'' steps toward nuclear disarmament, she said.

It would be a real shame if the final diplomatic straw that starts World War Three is "Your apology wasn't sincere enough." I realize the South is pulling an Alpha bluff, and that it's consistent with their "take no shit" philosophical stance towards the North, but at some point, this will backfire when North decides to not back down. Then, the whole peninsula will light up, and quick. There has to be a better solution to a potentially global nuclear conflict than the equivalent of two bullies staging intermittent pissing contests.

Korean Update: January 2nd, 2011

Some hopeful developments on the Korean penninsula this week, laced with some standard passive/nuclear agressive pronouncements..  All courtesy of North Korea, of course..  Excerpts:

North Korea, in a New Year message, said tensions with South Korea should be defused while calling for “intense combat training” for the North Korean army.

“The danger of war should be removed and peace safeguarded in the Korean Peninsula,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported, citing a New Year editorial carried by newspapers including Rodong Sinmun and Joson Inmingun. “If a war breaks out on this land, it will bring nothing but a nuclear holocaust.”

And, true to its technological reputation, North Korea sent these greetings via fax.  Ringring..  1994 calling..
Also, as another testament to Kim Jong Il's unique leadership style, "Bend it like Beckham" has been shown on North Korean state television, and is the first western movie to ever be broadcast in North Korea. 

"Apparently the people were amazed that a Western film was shown," Hughes told The AP. "And there has been a buzz around the country as people have talked about the film and its content."

Kim Jong Il, the Lady Ga Ga of world leaders, strikes again..

Korean Update, New Year's Eve Edition..

S Korea: N Korea Builds Up Special Forces  Excerpts:

North Korea has faster, more powerful tanks prowling the world's most heavily armed border and 200,000 special forces poised to carry out assassinations and cause havoc in South Korea, a major military review said Thursday.

Seoul's Defense Ministry report, released every two years, signals that the North's military threat has expanded..

The new document says the North intends to rely on its nuclear program, special forces, long-range artillery, submarines and cyber warfare forces as a counterweight to South Korea's high-tech conventional military.

North Korea has 200,000 special operations forces, the report says, an increase from 180,000 in the ministry's last assessment in 2008. Those forces are aimed at carrying out assassinations and infiltrating and disrupting key facilities in South Korea, it said.

So, while nothing has changed and no one has backed down, there seems to be a perception that, since no action has occurred, tension has decreased.  I disagree.  Looking at this conflict in terms of, say, a puzzle, more pieces keep sliding into place, and with each connected piece, a larger, clearer view of the situation emerges.  If a match does indeed drop onto this powderkeg, the explosion will be remarkable.

File Under: "In Hindsight, This Proved To Be A Catastrophic Mistake.."

S.Korea army to hold largest ever live-fire drill.  This isn't Monday's news, either.  This one's scheduled for Thursday..  Excerpt:

The drill, involving artillery, fighter jets and the largest number of personnel in a peace-time exercise, comes after the South's live-fire artillery exercise on Monday on the island near the tensely guarded sea border and is likely to infuriate Pyongyang.

Adding to the strangeness/tension of this unfolding crisis, Jesus jumped into the fray..  From South Korean troops prepare for possible North Korean attack..

Troops also were on alert at the border where the South turned on the lights of a 100-foot-tall (30-meter-tall) steel Christmas tree that would be visible to North Koreans living near the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas.

South Korea had stopped the longtime practice of lighting the huge Christmas tree — seen by secular North Korea as a propaganda move — years ago when it halted routine propaganda campaigns during a period of warming ties.

But today the lights will go on again at the western mountain peak known as Aegibong for the first time in seven years, officials said.

Looks like South Korea fooled both Bill Richardson AND Wolf Blitzer!

And:  Is it a problem of translation, disdain, or disgust?

Example one:  A caption for a picture of the Christmas tree states, "A fairy-light tower on Aegibong Peak in Gimpo, Gyeonggi Province, on the western frontier, is switched back on Tuesday for the first time in seven years."
Also:
The South Korean military remains on high alert as a floodlight tower on Aegibong Peak in Gimpo, Gyeonggi Province, only 3 km from North Korea, was switched back on Tuesday.


Heh.  Fairy-light tower.  North Koreans are funny with their disrespect. 
Kinda short answer regarding Thursday's military exercises?  No matter what anyone says, there is no de-escalation of tension. 

Shorter answer?  Doom back on. 

Wait A Minute: Who Blinked?

South Korea went ahead and held live fire exercises..  And North Korea still states that they'll retaliate on their timetable, not anyone else's..  And they'll also allow UN Inspectors back in the country.

No one blinked.  The strategic ball belongs to North Korea, at the moment.  This comment from  Godlike is correct: 

"You seriously think that just because the drill has ended then that is it? With all the meetings and concerns over this, I feel there is unfortunately a lot more to come. This is only the start of it."



North Korea will very likely retaliate in some fashion.
It is just a question of when and how much.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1197780

Indeed, this is a chess game not paintball and it is now their move.


Monday, December 20, 2010, the Korean Peninsula remains on the brink of war.  Chips are falling, right now.  Where said Chips end up and what that ultimately means remains to be seen.

DPRK says its army and people ready for all-out war

From Xinhuanet dot com..   Excerpts:

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) said its army and people were ready for escalated conflicts and all-out war that would not be confined to the peninsula, the official news agency KCNA reported Saturday.

According to the KCNA, a spokesman for the National Peace Committee of Korea said in the statement released Saturday that the recent moves of the U.S. indicated that it was fully joining in South Korea's moves for a war of aggression against the DPRK after "throwing away the disguise of a hypocrite".

It was clear that if the South Korean army mobilized all flying corps, warships and missiles for a war against the DPRK and the U.S. joined them with the latest weapons, it would develop into an all-out war, not a local war, he said.
..
It was ridiculous for the south to talk about a "right to self-defence". It was no more than "war servants and colonial stooges" of the U.S., he said.

The level of regional (and correspondingly international-by-proxy) tension is not leveling off or decreasing.  And North Korea's sending an Ambassador to Russia is also a little unsettling(As in diplomatic pre-disclosure, "Here's when we're gonna strike" unsettling)..  While this conflict has been reported on in the American media, it's coverage is partial at best, and fails to underscore this plateau to slowly escalating tension and dread surrounding the past 19 days. 

North Korea has always been tagged with "enemy status" as long as I've been alive, and always strongly aligned with China.  These incidents have happened before, and they've always calmed down.  And statistically, that's probably what will happen.  But, at the moment, that outcome seems..  Less possible with each passing day.

I'll Take Geopolitical And Thermonuclear Trash Talk For $800 Please, Alex..

N.Korea 'will rely on nuclear might for defence'


Pyongyang will rely on nuclear might to defend itself against the United States and South Korea, North Korea's Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun told Russia's Interfax news agency Friday.

Anyone taking this threat seriously?  Russia, I'm looking in your direction..

Moments after his comments, the Russian foreign ministry issued a statement stating that "all sides must avoid taking any actions that can escalate the situation."

Japan seems a little agitated by how this whole crisis has unfolded..

Japan's usual quiet approach to tensions with its neighbors is giving way to more military exercises, critical statements and discussions of what was once unthinkable: development of a nuclear arsenal.

In recent weeks, Japan has issued blunt positions against North Korea and China over the North's attacking of a South Korean island and China's refusal to rein in its Korean ally.

This month, Japan refused to renounce its claim to islands to its south whose waters are rich in minerals and that China says is its property. And Friday marked the eighth day of military drills with the U.S. aimed at countering a ballistic missile attack on Japan.  (If I were Japanese, I'd be more worried about China directly, rather than indirectly via North Korea.  But that's just splitting nuclear hairs..)

And, despite favorable talks between China and the U.S., no one seems ready to blink just yet..

Nothing To Deny As There's Nothing To Deny

US navy seeks to move jet fuel in rare Japan-Korea route  It's the "little stories" that worry me..  Excerpts:

The United States navy is seeking a medium-range oil tanker to move at least 30,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Japan to South Korea, industry sources said on Wednesday, at a time of heightened military tension on the Korean peninsula.

The transport route is unusual for jet fuel, shipping sources said, but an unnamed US military official said shipments of fuel for operational use are standard.

So..  Sources in shipping say this is unusual and the military says this is usual.  I'm sure the military's right..

"We don't have any information on what you are talking about in terms of the contracting," the US military official said. (Really?  Nothing?)

"There is no particular movement that has taken place in response to an incident in terms of large delivery of jet fuel or anything else."

Interesting choice of words, "no particular movement" is.

Uh Oh..

Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war

A mass exodus of North Korean workers from the Far East of Russia is under way, according to reports coming out of the region. As the two Koreas edged towards the brink of war this week, it appears that the workers in Russia have been called back to aid potential military operations.

Nothing coming out of the region suggests an easing of hostilities.  And there's still those pesky Military Exercises coming up..  What will happen next?

So That's What That Was.. But The Tension's Still Escalating..

North Korea intensifies threats ahead of Korea-U.S. military exercise near Yeonpyeong Island slated for Sunday.   Excerpts:

Threatening "a shower of dreadful fire," North Korea warned Friday it will wipe out its enemies if its sovereignty is violated, raising already high tension after the communist country exchanged deadly artillery barrages with South Korea earlier this week.

 The warning by the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea is the latest and one of the strongest threats the North has issued since South Korea and the U.S. agreed to hold joint drills near the communist country in a show of force.

  Two South Korean marines and two civilians were killed in the artillery exchange between the Koreas on Tuesday in one of the most violent clashes on the peninsula since the 1950-53 Korean War.

North Korea, officially called the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), denies initiating the clash, warning it will mount additional attacks if its territorial waters are violated.
And:
Meanwhile, South Korea's military is checking reports of sounds of artillery fire around Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea border with North Korea, officials said. (Hence the "So that's what that was" reference..)

Joint Military Exercises with the U.S. start Sunday, so we've got that to look forward to..

Tensions Don't Seem To Be Easing, Do They?

'Artillery fire' heard near South Korea island  Pre War Excerpts:

South Korea's military said two explosions were heard on Friday and it was checking the source of the sounds.

The two blasts were heard off Yeonpyeong island near the disputed border in the Yellow Sea, a Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesman told AFP.

"We're checking the origin of the sounds," he said.

And:

Officials said “dozens” of artillery rounds had landed on Yeonpyeong Island at in the Yellow Sea, 50 miles off the South’s northwest coast in an area close to a disputed sea border.

Other reports suggested around 200 shells could have been fired in the attack which began at 2.34pm local time (7.34am GMT).

F-16 fighter jets were scrambled and South Korean land-based forces returned fire on the North as civilians were evacuated to emergency bunkers, according to witnesses quoted by the Seoul-based cable news television channel YTN.

If this turns out to be artillery fire, the Korean situation is rapidly blooming into Worldwide crisis.   Once again, timing(Global Debt Crisis)and associations(China) figure heavily into why this sabre rattling is so much more important than past border squabbles.  If we aren't already there, we're rapidly approaching the border of "One wrong move and it's over."