Phht.. North Korea.. Somethin' Somethin' Nuclear Test.. Somethin' Somethin' U.S. Retaliation..

US: Strike on N. Korea Possible if Nuclear Test Held  KBS World (found it on Godlike Productions).  Excerpts:

The commander of the U.S. Pacific Command says the U.S. may launch a surgical strike against missile bases and nuclear test sites in North Korea if it conducts a third nuclear test.



Admiral Samuel Locklear explained the U.S.'s position on Tuesday at a meeting with South Korean defense journalists at the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) in Seoul.

Locklear said Washington is closely watching the North in relation to the possibility of a third nuclear test, adding the U.S. and South Korea are looking at all options including a surgical strike.


This feels like talk, for now.  I think Kim Jong Un is too new, and it doesn't seem like his Generals want to throw down just yet, not after Missile-Go-Launch-BOOM!, but they might later.  And the U.S. is setting a boundary.  Yes, the situation could escalate, but I'm more inclined to think Israel/Iran or India/Pakistan-China will flare first..  The biggest concern still being Fukushima, rendering all other speculation moot.

Korean Conflict: South Korea Takes A New Tactic; Ups The Ante

South Korea drops leaflets into North about Egypt, Libya

South Korea's military has been dropping leaflets into North Korea about democracy protests in Egypt and also sent food, medicines and radios for residents as part of a psychological campaign, a legislator said on Friday.

The campaign was aimed at encouraging North Koreans to think about change, conservative South Korean parliament member Song Young-sun said.

The food and medicines were delivered in light-weight baskets tied to balloons with timers programed to release the items above the target areas in the impoverished North, Song said in a statement.
..
Analysts say the level of Pyongyang's control over communications and movement of people is too tight to make it likely for North Koreans to rise up to the similar type of protests against their leaders.

South Korea's military has resumed its campaign of speaking directly to North Korean residents after the North bombarded an island near a disputed sea border in November..

While I think this is a much more subtle alternative to the previous forceful military presence-as-response, South Korea knows North Korea doesn't like these shenanigans, neither, from either South Korean groups or the government..  Is this the beginning of a long term investment regarding the "Inspire the North Koreans to get strong and take the government in 5 to 10 years" movement, or is this South Korea's "Head's up--We're coming" message to the North Korean people?  To what extent will North Korea view this as provocation, and how will they respond?

Springtime in the Northern Hemisphere is already active.  It's not even March, people.. 

2011:  The "Interesting Times" from the Chinese saying, "May you live in interesting times.."

This Week In Korea Conflict.

South Korea and Japan discuss first-ever military agreements

Pentagon Chief Huddles With Allies About NKorea

U.S. Recruits Japan As Global Military Partner

North Korea Threatens America with Long-Range Missiles

North Korea calls for unconditional talks with South Korea

North Korea's military: a bad hand played well

So, things are pretty much the same: Gigantic powderkeg, no real spark -- yet.

No Doubt The Jedi Felt This..

South Korea Buries One Million Pigs Alive Creepy, horrifying, and WTF excerpts:

South Korea has been heavily criticised for burying up to one million pigs alive as it grapples with a foot and mouth disease outbreak.

The South Korean government has so far refused to vaccinate pigs against the disease and is now slaughtering them in record numbers despite appeals to stop.

Compassion in World Farming (CIWF) told Sky News Online that South Korea's actions contravene international guidelines.

Joyce D’Silva, Director of Public Affairs for CIWF said: "Compassion in World Farming is appalled that the Republic of Korea is allegedly throwing pigs into pits and burying them alive.

"This is totally contrary to international guidelines on humane culling, which the Korean government endorsed five years ago. "We urge the Korean government to end this horrendous practice at once and to ensure that, if animals are culled, this is done humanely."

For fuck's sake, did no one in South Korea see "No Country For Old Men?" Awful; simply awful.

While We Were Bird Watching..

North Korea made some peaceful gestures to end the latest Korean crisis, but South Korea's not buying it.. Excerpts:

North Korea called Wednesday for "unconditional and early'' talks with rival South Korea to put an end to months of tensions. Seoul quickly dismissed the offer as insincere and said it's waiting for an apology for two deadly attacks blamed on Pyongyang.
It's rare for North Korea to issue such a statement addressed to South Korea and it came as the U.S. envoy on the North was in the region to discuss the standoff. Earlier in the day, Stephen Bosworth sought to calm fears of conflict on the peninsula.
..
But the North has made some conciliatory moves recently. On New Year's Day, the government issued a lengthy statement calling for warmer ties and the resumption of joint projects with South Korea. Pyongyang, eager for food and fuel assistance, has said it wants stalled international aid-for-nuclear-disarmament talks to restart. Washington and Seoul have said the North must first fulfill past nuclear disarmament commitments.
On Monday, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak vowed to increase his country's defenses but made clear the door was open for talks with Pyongyang and was willing to enhance economic cooperation between the rivals. On Wednesday, North Korean officials responded with their own call for negotiations.
"We are ready to meet anyone anytime and anywhere, letting bygones be bygones, if he or she is willing to go hands in hands with us,'' said a statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. It added that history has shown that such confrontations can only lead to an "armed clash and war.''
South Korea's Unification Ministry immediately rebuffed the overtures late Wednesday.
"We don't consider it as a sincere offer of dialogue,'' ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo said. North Korea first must apologize for the two attacks and take "sincere'' steps toward nuclear disarmament, she said.

It would be a real shame if the final diplomatic straw that starts World War Three is "Your apology wasn't sincere enough." I realize the South is pulling an Alpha bluff, and that it's consistent with their "take no shit" philosophical stance towards the North, but at some point, this will backfire when North decides to not back down. Then, the whole peninsula will light up, and quick. There has to be a better solution to a potentially global nuclear conflict than the equivalent of two bullies staging intermittent pissing contests.

Korean Update: January 2nd, 2011

Some hopeful developments on the Korean penninsula this week, laced with some standard passive/nuclear agressive pronouncements..  All courtesy of North Korea, of course..  Excerpts:

North Korea, in a New Year message, said tensions with South Korea should be defused while calling for “intense combat training” for the North Korean army.

“The danger of war should be removed and peace safeguarded in the Korean Peninsula,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported, citing a New Year editorial carried by newspapers including Rodong Sinmun and Joson Inmingun. “If a war breaks out on this land, it will bring nothing but a nuclear holocaust.”

And, true to its technological reputation, North Korea sent these greetings via fax.  Ringring..  1994 calling..
Also, as another testament to Kim Jong Il's unique leadership style, "Bend it like Beckham" has been shown on North Korean state television, and is the first western movie to ever be broadcast in North Korea. 

"Apparently the people were amazed that a Western film was shown," Hughes told The AP. "And there has been a buzz around the country as people have talked about the film and its content."

Kim Jong Il, the Lady Ga Ga of world leaders, strikes again..

Korean Update, New Year's Eve Edition..

S Korea: N Korea Builds Up Special Forces  Excerpts:

North Korea has faster, more powerful tanks prowling the world's most heavily armed border and 200,000 special forces poised to carry out assassinations and cause havoc in South Korea, a major military review said Thursday.

Seoul's Defense Ministry report, released every two years, signals that the North's military threat has expanded..

The new document says the North intends to rely on its nuclear program, special forces, long-range artillery, submarines and cyber warfare forces as a counterweight to South Korea's high-tech conventional military.

North Korea has 200,000 special operations forces, the report says, an increase from 180,000 in the ministry's last assessment in 2008. Those forces are aimed at carrying out assassinations and infiltrating and disrupting key facilities in South Korea, it said.

So, while nothing has changed and no one has backed down, there seems to be a perception that, since no action has occurred, tension has decreased.  I disagree.  Looking at this conflict in terms of, say, a puzzle, more pieces keep sliding into place, and with each connected piece, a larger, clearer view of the situation emerges.  If a match does indeed drop onto this powderkeg, the explosion will be remarkable.

File Under: "In Hindsight, This Proved To Be A Catastrophic Mistake.."

S.Korea army to hold largest ever live-fire drill.  This isn't Monday's news, either.  This one's scheduled for Thursday..  Excerpt:

The drill, involving artillery, fighter jets and the largest number of personnel in a peace-time exercise, comes after the South's live-fire artillery exercise on Monday on the island near the tensely guarded sea border and is likely to infuriate Pyongyang.

Adding to the strangeness/tension of this unfolding crisis, Jesus jumped into the fray..  From South Korean troops prepare for possible North Korean attack..

Troops also were on alert at the border where the South turned on the lights of a 100-foot-tall (30-meter-tall) steel Christmas tree that would be visible to North Koreans living near the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas.

South Korea had stopped the longtime practice of lighting the huge Christmas tree — seen by secular North Korea as a propaganda move — years ago when it halted routine propaganda campaigns during a period of warming ties.

But today the lights will go on again at the western mountain peak known as Aegibong for the first time in seven years, officials said.

Looks like South Korea fooled both Bill Richardson AND Wolf Blitzer!

And:  Is it a problem of translation, disdain, or disgust?

Example one:  A caption for a picture of the Christmas tree states, "A fairy-light tower on Aegibong Peak in Gimpo, Gyeonggi Province, on the western frontier, is switched back on Tuesday for the first time in seven years."
Also:
The South Korean military remains on high alert as a floodlight tower on Aegibong Peak in Gimpo, Gyeonggi Province, only 3 km from North Korea, was switched back on Tuesday.


Heh.  Fairy-light tower.  North Koreans are funny with their disrespect. 
Kinda short answer regarding Thursday's military exercises?  No matter what anyone says, there is no de-escalation of tension. 

Shorter answer?  Doom back on. 

Wait A Minute: Who Blinked?

South Korea went ahead and held live fire exercises..  And North Korea still states that they'll retaliate on their timetable, not anyone else's..  And they'll also allow UN Inspectors back in the country.

No one blinked.  The strategic ball belongs to North Korea, at the moment.  This comment from  Godlike is correct: 

"You seriously think that just because the drill has ended then that is it? With all the meetings and concerns over this, I feel there is unfortunately a lot more to come. This is only the start of it."



North Korea will very likely retaliate in some fashion.
It is just a question of when and how much.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1197780

Indeed, this is a chess game not paintball and it is now their move.


Monday, December 20, 2010, the Korean Peninsula remains on the brink of war.  Chips are falling, right now.  Where said Chips end up and what that ultimately means remains to be seen.

Russians say UN Security Council meeting needed to send 'a restraining signal' to North Korea

Sunday morning at 11 a.m EST.  The tension is still building,   Excerpts:

Russia's U.N. ambassador says Moscow called for an emergency Security Council meeting because of escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.

Vitaly Churkin said the Russian government believes the Security Council must send "a restraining signal" to North Korea and help launch diplomatic actions to resolve all disputes between North Korea and South Korea.

From Bloomberg/Business Week South Korea to Hold Drill This Week; Security Council to Meet
..
The artillery exercises will take place on Dec. 20 or Dec. 21, a spokesman at the Joint Chiefs of Staff who declined to be named, citing military policy, said today by telephone in Seoul. North Korea warned it will retaliate if the exercise takes place.

Shelling by South Korea “would make it impossible to prevent the situation on the Korean peninsula from exploding,” North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency cited the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as saying in a statement yesterday. South Korea sees no reason for abandoning the drill just because other countries say it shouldn’t happen, the South Korean military spokesman said today.

The Security Council meets later today, and neither side will budge.  It's not good, but there's your update.

Still No Blinking..

North Korea warns it will bomb South Korea if it goes ahead with military drills on Yeonpyeong

NORTH Korea yesterday vowed to bomb South Korea if it goes ahead with a fresh wave of artillery drills.

And it warned the ferocity of the strikes “will be more serious” than November’s attacks on Yeonpyeong island which killed four people.

I understood these drills to begin on Friday.  My mistake.  They take place Saturday through Tuesday, and should begin shortly or currently be in progress. 

As a cliched movie fantasy, I see North and South Korea as two intensely handsome criminals, standing in a crowded restaurant pointing automatic weapons at each other, both sweating profusely.  No one is speaking out, but everyone involved waits for someone, anyone to say "All right:  Everybody be cool..  Everybody breathe.."  While outside, two other groups prepare for the restaurant's destruction.

N Korea vows retaliation if S. Korea conducts live-fire drills near border

"North Korea vowed Friday to retaliate with greater firepower if South Korea goes ahead with its planned live-fire drills from the front line island that has been devastated by North Korean shelling."

Nice.  Eventually, someone will blink.  Or not.  Oh yeah;  This is today, so we'll know soon.  Happy holidays!

DPRK says its army and people ready for all-out war

From Xinhuanet dot com..   Excerpts:

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) said its army and people were ready for escalated conflicts and all-out war that would not be confined to the peninsula, the official news agency KCNA reported Saturday.

According to the KCNA, a spokesman for the National Peace Committee of Korea said in the statement released Saturday that the recent moves of the U.S. indicated that it was fully joining in South Korea's moves for a war of aggression against the DPRK after "throwing away the disguise of a hypocrite".

It was clear that if the South Korean army mobilized all flying corps, warships and missiles for a war against the DPRK and the U.S. joined them with the latest weapons, it would develop into an all-out war, not a local war, he said.
..
It was ridiculous for the south to talk about a "right to self-defence". It was no more than "war servants and colonial stooges" of the U.S., he said.

The level of regional (and correspondingly international-by-proxy) tension is not leveling off or decreasing.  And North Korea's sending an Ambassador to Russia is also a little unsettling(As in diplomatic pre-disclosure, "Here's when we're gonna strike" unsettling)..  While this conflict has been reported on in the American media, it's coverage is partial at best, and fails to underscore this plateau to slowly escalating tension and dread surrounding the past 19 days. 

North Korea has always been tagged with "enemy status" as long as I've been alive, and always strongly aligned with China.  These incidents have happened before, and they've always calmed down.  And statistically, that's probably what will happen.  But, at the moment, that outcome seems..  Less possible with each passing day.

I'll Take Geopolitical And Thermonuclear Trash Talk For $800 Please, Alex..

N.Korea 'will rely on nuclear might for defence'


Pyongyang will rely on nuclear might to defend itself against the United States and South Korea, North Korea's Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun told Russia's Interfax news agency Friday.

Anyone taking this threat seriously?  Russia, I'm looking in your direction..

Moments after his comments, the Russian foreign ministry issued a statement stating that "all sides must avoid taking any actions that can escalate the situation."

Japan seems a little agitated by how this whole crisis has unfolded..

Japan's usual quiet approach to tensions with its neighbors is giving way to more military exercises, critical statements and discussions of what was once unthinkable: development of a nuclear arsenal.

In recent weeks, Japan has issued blunt positions against North Korea and China over the North's attacking of a South Korean island and China's refusal to rein in its Korean ally.

This month, Japan refused to renounce its claim to islands to its south whose waters are rich in minerals and that China says is its property. And Friday marked the eighth day of military drills with the U.S. aimed at countering a ballistic missile attack on Japan.  (If I were Japanese, I'd be more worried about China directly, rather than indirectly via North Korea.  But that's just splitting nuclear hairs..)

And, despite favorable talks between China and the U.S., no one seems ready to blink just yet..

South Korea Holds More Live Fire Excercises, North Korea Still Not Amused

South Korea to Begin Artillery Tests  Excerpts:

South Korea's military said Monday it would test-fire artillery at 29 locations this week, including one of the islands in the Yellow Sea maritime border area where North Korea was angered by such testing two weeks ago.
..
On Sunday, North Korea's state media maintained its barrage of criticism at South Korea, saying Seoul was "far from drawing a lesson from the deserved punishment" of the North's attack on the South's Yeonpyeong Island nearly two weeks ago.

The latest statement, issued by Korea Central News Agency, said South Korea is "getting more frantic in military provocations and war moves." The statement also showed that Pyongyang closely watched Friday's confirmation hearing of South Korea's new defense minister, Kim Kwan-jin.

Mr. Kim said South Korea would respond to any fresh attacks by North Korea with air power, something it didn't do during the Nov. 23 assault on Yeonpyeong, an island in the Yellow Sea a few miles from the North Korean coastline. Four South Koreans—two civilians and two marines—died in the attack. South Korea has added new weaponry, including multiple rocket launchers, to the island since the attack.

Yeah, so no one seems to be backing down just yet.  As I write this, live fire exercises have been going for a little over six hours.  Happy Monday, everyone!  It's gonna be one exciting week, huh?

Korean Update-Or-At Least Someone's Making Money..

Dollar Rises Against Euro on Prospect U.S. Payrolls Expanded

North Korea may attack the province that surrounds Seoul, the Tokyo Shimbun newspaper said, citing an unidentified person who quoted an official in the communist nation. South Korea will hold artillery drills on Yeonpyeong, the island shelled by the North last week, on Dec. 6, television broadcaster MBN reported today, citing government officials it didn’t identify.

Japan and the U.S. will conduct a joint military exercise from tomorrow until Dec. 10.

“Geopolitical risk appears to be returning a bit on worries that North Korea may attack the South,” said Satoshi Okagawa, head of the foreign-exchange and money trading group in Singapore at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., a unit of Japan’s third-largest banking group. “There’s some safe-haven buying of the yen and the dollar.”

And:

The won strengthened for a third day as funds based abroad bought $373 million more Korean shares than they sold yesterday, the biggest net purchases in almost three weeks, exchange data show. The Kospi index of shares posted its highest close since Nov. 10 on optimism that tensions between North and South Korea are easing.

“We haven’t seen North Korean retaliation, which they pledged to do after the attack, and the lack of negative events let risk aversion subside,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “Positive sentiment globally boosted appetite for risk assets like the Korean won.”

US, Japan begin war games; China denounces drills

In an ongoing show of force following a deadly North Korean attack on a front-line island, the U.S. and Japan began one of their biggest-ever military exercises Friday, mobilizing more than 44,000 troops, hundreds of aircraft and a U.S. supercarrier.

The drills come just after the U.S. and South Korea concluded maneuvers in the Yellow Sea. The exercises brought immediate criticism from China, which is wary of having foreign navies off its shores and has been increasingly assertive over large swaths of waters in the south and east China seas, where some of the drills would take place.
..
The Nov. 23 North Korean attack killed two South Korean marines and two civilians on Yeonpyeong Island, a tiny enclave of civilians and military bases located near a disputed maritime border.

The attack has heightened tensions in the region and renewed fears of a bigger clash breaking out that could draw in neighboring countries, including Japan, where about 50,000 U.S. troops are based under a security pact.

South Korea’s New Defense Chief Threatens Air Strikes on North

South Korea’s new defense minister vowed retaliation that would include airstrikes if North Korea makes another attack following last month’s deadly artillery bombardment.

“I will mobilize all combat capabilities available to severely punish the enemy,” Kim Kwan Jin, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said today at a confirmation hearing. “I will surely use planes. This is a matter of self-defense.”

This may be a sign that the crisis is cooling a bit..

“The latest tough talk seemed to be mostly aimed at deterring North Korea from further provocations,” said Kim Yong Hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul. “There is only so much South Korea can do in terms of tough actions when there’s little assurance of how far North Korea will go.”

Or maybe cooling not so much..

A news report says North Korea now has more multiple-launch rockets capable of hitting Seoul.

Yonhap news agency says North Korea has increased its arsenal of rockets by 100 pieces to about 5,200. Yonhap cited an unidentified South Korean military source.

The agency says the rockets have a range of 37 miles (60 kilometers), putting Seoul within striking distance.

Nothing To Deny As There's Nothing To Deny

US navy seeks to move jet fuel in rare Japan-Korea route  It's the "little stories" that worry me..  Excerpts:

The United States navy is seeking a medium-range oil tanker to move at least 30,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Japan to South Korea, industry sources said on Wednesday, at a time of heightened military tension on the Korean peninsula.

The transport route is unusual for jet fuel, shipping sources said, but an unnamed US military official said shipments of fuel for operational use are standard.

So..  Sources in shipping say this is unusual and the military says this is usual.  I'm sure the military's right..

"We don't have any information on what you are talking about in terms of the contracting," the US military official said. (Really?  Nothing?)

"There is no particular movement that has taken place in response to an incident in terms of large delivery of jet fuel or anything else."

Interesting choice of words, "no particular movement" is.

Korean Update

Saber rattling continues near NLL  Excerpts:

Tensions are heightening in the area around Yeonpyeong Island, with the confirmation that North Korean forces deployed multi-launch rocket systems (MLRSs) forward to a coastal location facing the island and opened additional naval artillery firing ports on Sunday, the first day of joint South Korea-U.S. exercises. The North Korean military was also reported to have stepped up its anti-air posture targeting aerial activity by South Korean fighter planes, with the forward deployment of SA-2 earth-to-air missiles in the area north of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong Islands.

“The North Korean military was found to have deployed some of its 122 mm MLRSs forward to an inland area near Kaemori, from which the attack on Yeonpyeong Island was launched, and opened additional 76.2 mm naval artillery firing ports besides the previous fourteen locations,” said a military official said Sunday. “The South Korean military is also stepping up its alertness posture to prepare for a potential provocation situation.”

“It appears that North Korea positioned SA-2 earth-to-air missiles to the front following the attack on Yeonpyeong Island,” said a government source. “The government is mobilizing all its resources to precisely monitor the movements.”

Military authorities are taking this activity from North Korea as targeting South Korean fighter planes flying in the area near the NLL. The SA-2 is an anti-aircraft missile developed by the former Soviet Union, and has a firing range of 13 to 30 kilometers. The anti-ship missiles positioned by North Korean on the West Sea coast north of the NLL include Samlets and Silkworms, with a firing range of 80 km.

Although Monday's exercises were cancelled because of bad weather, the tension is still very high.  North Korea is even using the really cool phrase "Ultra-Emergency" to describe the situation..  The South Korean military is protesting, and South Korea's President said Monday "Kick sand in our face just one more time and there's gonna be trouble.."  Shit's heating up, yo..  Like I said, more updates to come..

Double Dog Uh-Oh..

Chinese government to make 'urgent' announcement

The Chinese government said Sunday it will make an "urgent" announcement later in the day amid rising military tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

Whether anyone wants to officially admit it or not, China's involved. So there will be More-To-Follow, I'm sure..

Uh Oh..

Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war

A mass exodus of North Korean workers from the Far East of Russia is under way, according to reports coming out of the region. As the two Koreas edged towards the brink of war this week, it appears that the workers in Russia have been called back to aid potential military operations.

Nothing coming out of the region suggests an easing of hostilities.  And there's still those pesky Military Exercises coming up..  What will happen next?