Next Year's Wars

Bored with the same old Korea vs. Korea, Israel vs. Gaza(for now..), Russia vs. Georgia, and U.S. vs. Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts?  Foreign Policy has taken the time to compile 2011's new apocalypse all stars line up.  Short answer?  Most on FP's list lack the firepower to be more than a civil or regional conflict at best.  The few breakouts include Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Lebanon, as each country deals with border tensions, proxy nation involvement, and the possibility (or availability by a potential ally or enemy) of escalation involving nuclear weapons.

My guess?  Pakistan, drawn into war through a (possibly rogue/possibly government-sanctioned) terror attack, either involving India, the United States, or both. 

Korean Update, New Year's Eve Edition..

S Korea: N Korea Builds Up Special Forces  Excerpts:

North Korea has faster, more powerful tanks prowling the world's most heavily armed border and 200,000 special forces poised to carry out assassinations and cause havoc in South Korea, a major military review said Thursday.

Seoul's Defense Ministry report, released every two years, signals that the North's military threat has expanded..

The new document says the North intends to rely on its nuclear program, special forces, long-range artillery, submarines and cyber warfare forces as a counterweight to South Korea's high-tech conventional military.

North Korea has 200,000 special operations forces, the report says, an increase from 180,000 in the ministry's last assessment in 2008. Those forces are aimed at carrying out assassinations and infiltrating and disrupting key facilities in South Korea, it said.

So, while nothing has changed and no one has backed down, there seems to be a perception that, since no action has occurred, tension has decreased.  I disagree.  Looking at this conflict in terms of, say, a puzzle, more pieces keep sliding into place, and with each connected piece, a larger, clearer view of the situation emerges.  If a match does indeed drop onto this powderkeg, the explosion will be remarkable.

Nothing To Deny As There's Nothing To Deny

US navy seeks to move jet fuel in rare Japan-Korea route  It's the "little stories" that worry me..  Excerpts:

The United States navy is seeking a medium-range oil tanker to move at least 30,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Japan to South Korea, industry sources said on Wednesday, at a time of heightened military tension on the Korean peninsula.

The transport route is unusual for jet fuel, shipping sources said, but an unnamed US military official said shipments of fuel for operational use are standard.

So..  Sources in shipping say this is unusual and the military says this is usual.  I'm sure the military's right..

"We don't have any information on what you are talking about in terms of the contracting," the US military official said. (Really?  Nothing?)

"There is no particular movement that has taken place in response to an incident in terms of large delivery of jet fuel or anything else."

Interesting choice of words, "no particular movement" is.

Uh Oh..

Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war

A mass exodus of North Korean workers from the Far East of Russia is under way, according to reports coming out of the region. As the two Koreas edged towards the brink of war this week, it appears that the workers in Russia have been called back to aid potential military operations.

Nothing coming out of the region suggests an easing of hostilities.  And there's still those pesky Military Exercises coming up..  What will happen next?

Oh; It's On! Or Not, Not Really, Or Maybe It Is?

US Aircraft Carrier Heads for Korean Waters

A U.S. aircraft carrier headed toward the Korean peninsula on Wednesday, a day after North Korea launched dozens of artillery shells on a South Korean island.

The nuclear-powered USS George Washington, which carries 75 warplanes and has a crew of over 6,000, left a naval base south of Tokyo on Wednesday morning and would join exercises with South Korea from Sunday to the following Wednesday, U.S. officials in Seoul said.

"This exercise is defensive in nature," U.S. Forces Korea said in a statement. "While planned well before yesterday's unprovoked artillery attack, it demonstrates the strength of the ROK (South Korea)-U.S. alliance and our commitment to regional stability through deterrence."

China came under heavy pressure to rein in North Korea after its reclusive ally fired dozens of artillery shells at the South Korean island, killing two South Korean soldiers and setting houses ablaze in the heaviest attack on its neighbor since the Korean War ended in 1953.
...
"We're in a semi state of war," South Korean coastguard Kim Dong-jin told Reuters in the port city of Incheon where many residents of Yeonpyeong island fled in panic as the bombardment triggered a fire storm.
..
South Korea, its armed forces technically superior though about half the size of the North's one-million-plus army, warned of "massive retaliation" if its neighbor attacked again.

Sounds like South Korea has had enough.  Two things set this apart from normal North/South squabbling:  The heaviest attack since 1953 and on a completely domestic target (they'll count as one), and the particular timing of this event.  Any escalation on the Korean peninsula will impact an already fragile, swaying world market.  Will China via North Korea pull out one more global Jenga piece?  Once events are set in motion, Inertia becomes impossible to stop.  We are descending every day into bigger and more Novel situations in all facets of our lives.  Maybe that was what The Tipping Point was about.