Middle East Rumors

Interesting little thread from Lunatic Outpost.  Real time rumors, speculation, propaganda, and some genuine nuggets of information all included here.  Please remember the truth is always not only the first casualty of war, but also of the pre-war run up..  Please exercise discretion when reading!

Israel’s Channel 2: U.S. Officials Believe Netanyahu Has Already Decided to Strike Iran

Yikes..  From The Algemeiner, via the awesome Urban Survival.  Excerpts:

Channel 2 in Israel, sourcing a “senior American official”, says that the decision has already been made by the Israeli government to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.



“All U.S. intelligence officials are confident the Israeli leadership has already decided to attack Iran, unless a significant change happens in the coming weeks or months with the Iranian nuclear program,” Channel 2 reports.


The report comes just hours ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to AIPAC in Washington.

I bet the back-channel chatter is at a fever pitch, at the moment..

Foreign Press Rents Tel Aviv Rooftops To Cover Iran War

Disconcerting, yet snarky news from Eurasia Review (via Godlike Productions).  Excerpts:

..They’re (Foreign press outlets) renting the right to put film crews and reporters on the city’s rooftops (Hebrew) during the upcoming war in order to cover the anticipated Iranian counterattack. That way they can get great photo ops and pictures of missiles wreaking havoc on the city. What a story! What a feast for the eyes! Other news organizations like CBS, Fox News, and NBC are sending their senior producers to Israel to scope out the place in case they have to send in the big boys–the news anchors and senior correspondents (especially since no one can report from Teheran!).


We can’t wait!

Are you getting the feeling 2012 won't be quiet, peaceful, or a piece of cake?  Me, too..

The Game in Syria

Or:  Why Assad Isn't Going Anywhere..  From Information Clearing House.  Bottom Line/Excerpts:

The situation in Libya, for example, should not be taken as a measure of anything significant when it comes to a country like Syria. The departure of Libyan leader Moammar Qadhafi will not leave a dramatic regional political vacuum, while the departure of Assad and his government will have significant repercussions in neighboring countries, whether it’s Iraq, or Lebanon, or elsewhere. So far, Washington is offering tacit support for Assad, despite the news flashes that one might hear from time to time. The U.S. is not in a position to take the risky move of choosing sides, and is aware that Assad’s government, in its own way, offers the kind of “security” that Washington and other foreign capitals are anxious to see.

The most important lesson from this week is that the Arab peoples who are engaging in courageous public protests should focus on the internal requirements of their actions. They should not wage on the outside world to help them, because history has shown that only interests, and nothing else, guide such policies.

(fuse burning..)

Breaking: Ahmadinejad to resign

This could be big.  The Examiner via Godlike Productions.   Excerpts:

A few minutes ago on May 5, 2011, Arab TV announced that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini requested Iran's President Ahmadinejad to step down from his post. This has not been confirmed nor verified by Western media as yet, however, it has been reported that several of his close aides are already under arrest.

The UK Guardian reported today that many of Ahmadinejad's aides were accused of using 'supernatural powers', including invoking jinns (spirits) in an attempt to further the president's agenda against Khameini. This includes Irani Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei,

The timing is curious, as protests in Iran have cooled, and Ahmadinejad seemed fairly stable at the helm.  Israel had made noises about an imminent attack on Iran, and the timing of this episode seems calculated to de-stabilize the country.  This could be the beginning ignition of a pretty serious Flashpoint.

Bahrain's Secret Terror

Desperate emails speak of 'genocide' as doctors who have treated injured protesters are rounded up.  Klassy with a K. Excerpts:

 The intimidation and detention of doctors treating dying and injured pro-democracy protesters in Bahrain is revealed today in a series of chilling emails obtained by The Independent.

At least 32 doctors, including surgeons, physicians, paediatricians and obstetricians, have been arrested and detained by Bahrain's police in the last month in a campaign of intimidation that runs directly counter to the Geneva Convention guaranteeing medical care to people wounded in conflict. Doctors around the world have expressed their shock and outrage.
And:
"Interrogation committees question me about our role in treating the injured protesters, who are considered now criminal for protesting against the government," he said, shortly before being detained. "We said we were there to treat patients and have nothing to do with politics.

"I don't have good feeling about things going on in Bahrain. So many of our consultant surgeon and physician colleagues been arrested at pre-dawn raids and disappear."
..
There followed a long silence before he wrote again: "Three weeks of hell. The military took control of the Salmaniya Hospital, doctors, nurses, paramedics and patients treated as suspects by soldiers and policemen. Daily interrogation and detention to some of our colleges." He added: "Very much intimidated and frighten."

And, sad to say this is nothing new.  Richard Sollom: The shocking thing is that Bahrain abuse is systematic. 

In two decades of conducting human rights investigations in more than 20 countries, I have never seen such widespread and systematic violations of medical neutrality as I did in Bahrain.

Bahrain's ambulances, hospitals and medical clinics as well as its physicians, nurses, and medical staff are all being targeted. It's pervasive and ongoing. These attacks violate the principle of medical neutrality and are grave breaches of international law.
..
While in Bahrain, we documented evidence of the hospital administration at Salmaniya calling doctors and nurses in for appointments, from which they were never seen again. Presumably they are taken to places of detention. One notable detention centre, Criminal Investigations Directorate at Adliya, is also an infamous centre of torture.

Unfortunately, the doctors do not have to be taken to detention centres to suffer violent attacks. We have documented the story of six doctors beaten by security forces in a Salmaniya staff room. When security forces are capable of such brutality in a hospital, one can only imagine what happens in a detention centre.

I'm sure Iran has taken note of this situation, among others.  They seem upset..  This proxy-crisis feels like it will escalate very soon.

Middle East Update, March 14, 2011

Vision: What's Next in Egypt and the Middle East?

Keep in mind that the hated emergency laws from the Mubarak era, part of what provoked the Egyptian uprising to begin with, are still in place and that the country’s intellectuals, its political parties, labor unions, and the media all fear a silent counterrevolution. At the same time, they almost uniformly insist that the Tahrir Square revolution will neither be hijacked nor rebranded by opportunists. As the ideological divide between liberalism, secularism, and Islamism disintegrated when the country’s psychological Wall of Fear came down, lawyers, doctors, textile workers -- a range of the country’s civil society -- remain clear on one thing: they will never settle for a theocracy or a military dictatorship. They want full democracy.

Democracy outlook dims in much of Mideast

Gadhafi Forces Drive Rebels From Key Oil Town

Moammar Gadhafi's forces swept rebels from a key oil town Sunday with waves of strikes from warships, tanks and warplanes, closing on the opposition-held eastern half of Libya as insurgents pleaded for a U.N.-imposed no-fly zone.



Gadhafi's troops have been emboldened by a string of victories in the struggle for Libya's main coastal highway but their supply lines are stretched and their dependence on artillery, airstrikes and naval attacks makes it hard for them to swiftly consolidate control of territory, particularly at night.


The insurgents claimed they moved back into the strategic town of Brega after dusk in a fast-moving battle with a constantly shifting front line, destroying armored vehicles and capturing dozens of fighters from Gadhafi's elite Khamis Brigade.

Pro-Democracy Protests Spread to Oman

Most Americans are not familiar with the sultanate of Oman. The mostly desert country the size of Kansas wraps around the Arabian peninsula's southeastern corner, bordering Yemen on its southwest and the empty quarter of Saudi Arabia along most of its inland border. Oman's long seacoast runs along the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. And its northern tip forms one side of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz across from Iran.



Oman's autocratic monarchy has long been one of the closest U.S. allies in the Middle East. And, as with authoritarian U.S. allies in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, and Yemen, a largely nonviolent, pro-democracy struggle has arisen in Oman as well.


Protests began in the capital of Muscat on February 19 but soon spread to other cities across the country. Similar to the other largely nonviolent insurrections taking place elsewhere in the Arab world, the protests have been centered on demands for democracy, human rights, economic justice, and curbing official corruption. As in Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, and other monarchies that have witnessed protests in recent weeks, most protesters are not demanding the abolition of the monarchy. They're seeking an elected parliament with real power, essentially transforming the current absolute monarchy into a constitutional monarchy.

And they're getting fired upon.  Imagine if they wanted total overthrow of the government?

Bahrain lawmakers ask King to impose martial law

A parliament group asked Bahrain's king on Monday to impose martial law after a month of unrest that has left the tiny Gulf nation sharply divided between minority Sunni Muslims backing the ruling system and Shiites demanding sweeping changes.


There was no immediate response from Bahrain's monarch, but authorities have expressed increasing frustration that opposition groups have not accepted offers to open dialogue aimed at easing the crisis.

A military-run clampdown would risk further polarizing the strategic island kingdom - home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet - and send a chill through the many international banking and financial companies that use Bahrain as their Gulf hub.

Five Killed, Over 100 Wounded as Yemen Cracks Down on Protests

At least five people were killed Sunday and 105 others wounded in violent regime crackdowns against the nationwide protests. The heaviest clashes were reported at Sanaa University in the nation’s capital, while the southern city of Aden also saw violence.

The protests across Yemen have been growing for weeks, with the protesters demanding that long-time President Ali Abdullah Saleh resign and allow free elections. Saleh, for his part, has ruled out such a resignation, saying it would bring “chaos.”

Libya Roundup, March 9, 2011

Gaddafi's scorched earth: Libya's skies turn black as desperate dictator blows up oil pipes and turns his tanks on civilians


Colonel Gaddafi's forces today blasted an oil terminal to smithereens as Libya's bloody civil war entered its blackest day.


Rebels retaliated by firing back with rockets as a fireball exploded from one of the oil tanks and the sky above the Es Sider terminal, in the east of the country, filled with hideous smoke.


A witness said one of the smoke plumes was the biggest he had seen in the conflict so far.


The fresh onslaught came as Gaddafi deployed tanks and snipers to 'shoot anything that moves'.



Forces loyal to the Libyan dictator poured into the city of Zawiyah in a desperate bid to oust the hardcore band of protesters and army defectors who have taken control.
 
 Unrest in Libya has cut oil output to about half a million barrels per day from 1.6 million bpd as many foreign and local workers left the oil fields, the country's top oil official said on Wednesday.


Rebels and Gaddafi forces battle in eastern and western Libya  Excerpts:


BENGHAZI, LIBYA - Rebel forces in Libya engaged in intense fighting on two fronts Wednesday, claiming to break through a three-day standoff with government fighters in the town of Bin Jawwad but suffering another day of heavy casualties in the besieged western city of Zawiyah.


In Zawiyah, government forces were heavily shelling the main square, residents said, with airstrikes, tank and mortar fire, machine guns and artillery.


"We need some international aid here," said Mohammed, an opposition spokesman in the city, which was bombed for a sixth consecutive day by forces loyal to Moammar Gaddafi. "At least stop them from having airplanes fly over us."

The Libyan paradox

Most likely he is desperate and over the years he must have been haunted by the fantasy that he really created a country of his own and therefore no one has the right to challenge his ownership of Libya. He must believe what he keeps repeating: that he is neither a president nor a king to resign; he is an uncontested leader of a revolution, who possesses nothing but his gun and he will use it to regain control. He also claimed that he turned power to the people to govern themselves, a form of democracy superior in his view to any other system of government yet devised. If he is truly insane, it is just because he believes this hallucination.

Libyan rebels' mood darkens amid fears revolution has stalled

Nearly three weeks after Libyans surprised themselves by revolting against Muammar Gaddafi's brutal 42-year rule, euphoria at the prospect of swiftly deposing the dictator has given way in the rebel capital, Benghazi, to the grim prospect of a popular uprising evolving into a drawn-out military conflict.

That is stoking fears about the consequences of losing, as Gaddafi's forces use tanks and artillery to crush the revolutionaries' takeover of the city of Zawiyah, near Tripoli, and stall the rebel advance from Benghazi hundreds of miles short of the Libyan capital.

Western powers exploit Libyan crisis to step up intervention plans

Inside Libya, Gaddafi’s former justice minister, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, who now heads the opposition National Libyan Council in Benghazi, called for foreign air strikes and a no-fly zone. Citing sources within the council, the New York Times reported that this stance was adopted at a heated council meeting where “others strongly disagreed”. There has been deep opposition to such a call within popular protests against Gaddafi, because of fears of a return to neo-colonial rule—fears that Gaddafi is exploiting to posture as a defender of Libyan sovereignty.

England Thinks Gaddafi's Already Dead, Too..

Libya Now, Iran Then: How Close Are We to 1979?  Gonzalo Lira.  Excerpts:

Today, the UK’s Telegraph is reporting that British government drones in Whitehall are figuring out the legal means to seize Muammar al-Gaddafi’s assets in Britain, which are said to total some £20 billion.
..
That these assets are going to be seized is, according to the story, a done deal: The only issue seems to be the legal means by which to do so—


—which means that the British government isn’t worried about pissing off Gaddafi—


—which means that Gaddafi’s days in power are numbered: Whitehall would never dare seize his UK assets, unless they were sure that Gaddafi won’t be around to exact revenge or retribution. After all, the Brits let the Lockerbie Bomber go in 2009, in order to shore up relations with Gaddafi.


Lira's article continues by exploring a comparison of economic/global circumstances between '79's Iranian Revolution and and Now.  Short answer?  2011 does not fare well, as circumstances in 1979 were way better.  Way better.

My point being, England has assessed that Gaddafi is, without a doubt, going down.  Killed or Captured or Captured Then Killed, they're sure he's not going to talk, so they're going for his cash.  Not the worst thing in the world, right?  Lira then brings up the possibility of the beginnings of what could be many oil shocks, the likes of which America can't survive..  Excerpts from original article..

Now, what happened after 1979’s Iranian Oil Shock? Like I said: Severe inflation, unemployment, and a Fed that had to raise rates catastrophically, in order to stop an inflation that was spiralling out of control.

But back in 1979, there was no kindling for that inflationary fire. Federal Reserve money policies were fairly responsible. The Federal government’s total debt and liabilities was less than 50% of GDP. Back in 1979, the U-3 unemployment rate was about 5%, compared to over 9% today.

Back in 1979, there was no ZIRP, no QE2, no $1.6 trillion deficit. There weren’t so many freshly-minted dollars sloshing around, looking for yields like army ants looking for dead meat. There wasn’t a total government debt that was bigger than the total gross domestic product of the United States.

In short, back in 1979, the economy, the fiscal situation and the monetary policy were far healthier than they are today.

Yet the 1979 Oil Shock brought us the worst recession since the Great Depression.

And that is very, very bad for us today, in 2011.

Seriously:  Shouldn't we be taking all the alternative energy projects off the back burner and fast tracking Every Bit Of It right now?  We as a society can see the potential cataclysm in front of us:  Shouldn't we start talking about directions away from disaster, or at least trying to cushion the impact? 

Then again, it was Way Too Late way before I wrote these words. 

The Tsunami Approaches, and we stare; transfixed.

Mid-East Uprising: Libya Edition

"Libya on the brink."

It's clear Qadafi's regime won't go quietly, and it seems like the tide is turning.. Moammar Gadhafi's son warns of civil war in Libya if father's leadership not recognized Excerpts:

After anti-government unrest spread to the Libyan capital and protesters seized military bases and weapons Sunday, Moammar Gadhafi’s son went on state television to proclaim that his father remained in charge with the army’s backing and would “fight until the last man, the last woman, the last bullet.”
Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, in the regime’s first comments on the six days of demonstrations, warned the protesters that they risked igniting a civil war in which Libya’s oil wealth “will be burned.”
The speech followed a fierce crackdown by security forces who fired on thousands of demonstrators and funeral marchers in the eastern city of Benghazi in a bloody cycle of violence that killed 60 people on Sunday alone, according to a doctor in one city hospital. Since the six days of unrest began, more than 200 people have been killed, according to medical officials, human rights groups and exiled dissidents.
..
Although the elder Gadhafi did not appear, his son has often been put forward as the regime’s face of reform.
..
Protesters had seized some military bases, tanks and other weapons, he said, blaming Islamists, the media, thugs, drunks and drug abusers, foreigners — including Egyptians and Tunisians. (It's amazing the feats drug users are capable of, huh?)
He also admitted that the unrest had spread to Tripoli, with people firing in central Green Square before fleeing.
The rebellion by Libyans frustrated with Gadhafi’s more than 40 years of authoritarian rule has spread to more than a half-dozen eastern cities — but also to Tripoli, where secret police were heavily deployed on the streets of the city of 2 million.
And:
In other setbacks for Gadhafi’s regime, a major tribe in Libya was reported to have turned against him and Libya’s representative to the Arab League said he resigned his post to protest the government’s decision to fire on defiant demonstrators in Benghazi, the second-largest city.
Khaled Abu Bakr, a resident of Sabratha, an ancient Roman city to the west, said protesters besieged the local security headquarters, driving out police and setting it on fire. Abu Bakr said residents are in charge, have set up neighborhood committees to secure their city.
The Internet has been largely shut down, residents can no longer make international calls from land lines and journalists cannot work freely, but eyewitness reports trickling out of the country suggested that protesters were fighting back more forcefully against the Middle East’s longest-serving leader.
“We are not afraid. We won’t turn back,” said a teacher who identified herself only as Omneya. ..“If we don’t continue, this vile man would crush us with his tanks and bulldozers. If we don’t, we won’t ever be free,” she said.

The Renaissance of the Arab World?

It's never good when your country's diplomats resign in disgust..

And finally, is global unrest starting to effect China?

Iranian warships pass through Suez Canal

Nothing's exploded yet, but Israel certainly isn't happy.. Since Reuters regards every word from all their articles as sacred and every other news organization is too lazy to write their own damn version of events, no excerpts are forthcoming. Summary: Iranian State TV said the ships are already through the canal and headed towards a port in Syria. Iranian ships through the Suez? Not since 1979, baby.. Israel's freaked out and will bitch about it for weeks to come.

Diplomatic tensions in the region just ticked upward.. Satisfied, Reuters?