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From Washington's Blog. Excerpts:
It was tempting to believe that China was different.
With its command and control economy with some of the trappings of free market capitalism, trillions in reserves, and abundant natural resources, many thought that China would "decouple" from the Western world's problems and sail into a prosperous future.
However, despite its long history, exotic names and seemingly strong position, China cannot avoid the rules of economics which have applied to all countries throughout history.
And:
The Telegraph noted last June:
China's chief auditor has warned that high levels of local government debt could derail the country's economy, with some observers suggesting that a number of Chinese provinces are even more fiscally-troubled than Greece.
Few countries will come through unscathed when the global economy tanks. And I do think China looks stronger than it actually is..
From Gonzalo Lira. Yet another Catastrophe befalling mankind in the beginning days of its expansion. Excerpts:
So if Greece goes down the tubes, Ireland and Portugal would almost immediately need a bailout: They would not be able to borrow on the open markets the money they need in order to continue funding their governments.
That is, if Greece defaults, the Irish and the Portuguese would suddenly find themselves without the money to fund elementary schools, ambulances, sewer systems, power grids, etc.
So! What is the European leadership doing?
Dithering! They are not approving a Greek bailout—and they are not giving a clear signal that Greece will be booted out of the eurozone, but Ireland and Portugal will be protected. In other words, the European finance ministers who are supposed to “stabilize the markets” are creating the conditions of uncertainty in the markets—
—which only hurts Ireland and Portugal.
Now, why is defending (financially speaking) Ireland and Portugla essential?
In a word, Spain.
And:
It’s as simple as that. Spain is too big—roughly half the size of Germany. If Spain goes, it will drag down all of the European continent with it—that is, bank failures (on both sides of the pond), a crash of the eurozone as a currency, massive unemployment, a European economy that would grind to a halt—
—basically, the worst parts of the Great Depression.
It doesn't look like Greece as-it-is-now will remain much longer. The inevitability of financial "obligations" versus the needs of the populace will continue to escalate towards violence towards whatever outcome eventually occurs. It's like watching an Impact in slooow motion. Greece is Happening, and the implications of Greece Happening have already begun, too.
And now they're protesting in Spain, while the crisis continues to deepen.
Greek PM warns against 'catastrophic' default Video and article from Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera's Tim Friend, reporting from the capital, Athens, said: "The anger is deep and (protesters) resent having to pay the price for the mistakes of others as they see it, the mistakes of banks and financiers."
"The problem for the politicians here is they're being dictated to by the International Monetary Fund and events now taking place elsewhere in Europe with the euro zone finance ministers," our correspondent said.
"They are the ones now calling the shots. The Greeks really are having to simply comply and do what they say."
Crisis point for Greece as it gets loan to stave off default What will the people do when the banks and government openly defy their wishes? Well, they're Greek, so the logical answer "Take to the streets!." Will this event devolve into riots, fighting, insurrection, or worse? At the moment, Greece's situation looks inevitable, and looks like a Worst Case Scenario no matter the direction.
Everything's getting hotter; everywhere. Greece is just the opening song of the opening act.
So Much For Libyan Rebel Oil Exports: Gaddafi Forces Destroy Last Fuel Tanks Under Rebel Control; NATO Land Offensive Now Unavoidable
And so the badly thought out experiment to supply Libyan rebels with a central bank, to be used to fund an "alternative" fuel industry comes to a prompt and fiery end. Reuters reports that "Libyan government forces destroyed four fuel storage tanks and set several others ablaze in rebel-held Misrata, dealing a blow to the port city's ability to withstand a government siege, rebels said on Saturday." Not surprisingly this fits in perfectly with the assumption first postulated by Zero Hedge that Gaddafi will destroy his entire oil infrastructure before letting it fall into "enemy" hands. This likely marks the end of the Libyan rebellion and will force NATO to launch a land offensive or suffer a crushing blow to its already shaky reputation as globocop, especially now that the US is in theory at least, out of the air campaign against Gaddafi. Which means that the boots on the ground are soon coming.
..
And while NATO ponders how to best break to the world that it has failed in Phase 1 of the Libyan offensive, it appears that 1.6 million of barrels of oil will be out of the supply system for a long time. Furthermore, with developments in Syria and Yemen getting worse by the day, we are confident that geopolitical worries will once again trump margin hikes, and crude will promptly return in the triple digits within a week.
Tunisia warns Libya over shelling of border town
Tunisia warned Libya that it considered the shelling of a border town Saturday "extremely dangerous" and said it would take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty.
Close to 100 shells or mortar rounds fell on or near the Tunisian border town of Dehiba Saturday, causing no injuries but doing damage to one house, a Reuters witness said. The shelling sent residents scurrying for safety.
The town has been hit repeatedly by stray shells in recent weeks as forces loyal to Libya's Muammar Gaddafi battle rebels for control of the Dehiba-Wazzin border crossing.
Just because the news isn't covering Libya anymore doesn't mean the Libyan rebels themselves aren't forgetting their countrymen, because they are..
Libyan rebels: Gaddafi's forces attacking Benghazi From The Jerusalem Post.
US claims Libyan gov't violating ceasefire; French UN envoy says military intervention may be launched "hours after" upcoming int'l summit; Gaddafi calls UN resolution "blatant colonialism."
..
Large explosions were heard in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi early on Saturday, and residents said that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's forces were attacking the rebel stronghold.
..
A unilateral ceasefire declared on Friday by the Libyan government appeared to have done little to convince outside powers to hold off on plans for air strikes to force an end to an increasingly bloody civil war.
Other regimes emboldened by Gadhafi's tactics
..But in the end, it was Gadhafi's willingness to use brute force and the tools of his police state that has helped him so far avoid the fate of neighboring autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt who were swallowed up by popular revolutions.
Regimes in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Syria appear to have taken note, confronting their uprisings with a hard wall of state-sponsored violence.
On Friday, government agents fired on a peaceful protest in Yemen, security forces in Syria reportedly shot several demonstrators dead, and Bahrain's ruling monarchy tore down a 300-foot sculpture at Pearl Square, where protesters had been routed in a deadly confrontation just two days earlier.
Libya shuts air space in face of strikes
Libya shut down its air space on Friday as Britain and France were expected to scramble fighter jets against Moammar Gaddafi's forces after they secured the UN Security Council's blessing.
Eurocontrol, the continent's air traffic agency, said Tripoli "does not accept traffic" until further notice, citing information from Maltese authorities, as France announced air strikes would be imminent.
Gaddafi's son Seif al-Islam said Friday his family was "not afraid" as the Libyan foreign ministry said Tripoli was ready for a ceasefire but wanted to discuss its terms.
Meeting Thursday, the UN Security Council voted by 10-0 to permit "all necessary measures" to establish the no-fly zone, protect civilian areas and impose a ceasefire on Gaddafi's military.
This paragraph is of long(looonng) term interest..
Five countries on the 15-strong council abstained, including permanent members China and Russia, who did not use their veto power. India and Brazil also abstained in addition to Germany.
Brazil
Russia
India
China..
and
Germany.
BRIC plus Germany. This is not a coincidence.
Gadhafi plays deadly war games
Trying to outmaneuver Western military intervention, Moammar Gadhafi's government declared a cease-fire against the rebel uprising faltering against his artillery, tanks and warplanes. The opposition said shells rained down well after the announcement and accused the Libyan leader of lying.
Wary of the cease-fire, Britain and France took the lead in plans to enforce a no-fly zone, sending British warplanes to the Mediterranean and announcing a crisis summit today in Paris with the U.N. and Arab allies. In Washington, President Barack Obama ruled out the use of American ground troops but warned that the U.S., which has an array of naval and air forces in the region, would join in military action.
..
Parts of eastern Libya, where the once-confident rebels this week found their hold slipping, erupted into celebration at the passage of the U.N. resolution. But the timing and consequences of any international military action remained unclear.
Britain, France and NATO held emergency meetings Friday on using military force to enforce the no-fly zone, which was approved by U.N. Security Council on Thursday. Officials announced that the leaders of Britain, France and Germany and the chiefs of the United Nations and Arab League would join other world leaders for the emergency summit on Libya today in Paris.
France's ambassador to the United Nations, Gerard Araud, told BBC Newsnight that he expected military action to begin in Libya within hours of the Paris meeting.
Libya accuses revolutionaries of breaching truce
So far Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Norway, Qatar, Spain, Sweden and the United States have said they will help to implement the no-fly zone.
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said "everything is ready" to intervene in Libya, but he refused to give a timetable.
And:
Some 300,000 people have already fled Libya since the rebellion began and many more are expected to leave if full-blown war breaks out, the agencies said.
EU to back sanctions on Libya oil company next week
The European Union will move to add Libya's National Oil Corp. to its list of sanctions against Muammar Gaddafi's government at a summit on March 24/25, EU diplomats said on Friday.
The move follows Thursday's U.N. Security Council resolution which authorised a no-fly zone over Libya and expanded sanctions against Gaddafi and his inner circle that were first imposed in February. These measures include an order to freeze the assets of the oil company as well as Libya's central bank.
Indict Muammar Gaddafi now for War Crimes in Sierra Leone
With international pressure already mounting on Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and with the International Criminal Court now in the process of gathering information on civilian deaths in Libya, the Special Court for Sierra Leone and the International Criminal Court have a profound opportunity to indict Gaddafi for war crimes and crimes against humanity he has committed in Sierra Leone. The United Nations has already sanctioned Gaddafi’s government, and now it’s time his prior crimes in West Africa are brought to justice, too.
Muammar Gaddafi was the mastermind and key financier of the brutal war that left hundreds of thousands dead in Sierra Leone in West Africa in the 1990s. The war would not have happened in the first place had it not been for the desire of the Libyan leader to punish the government of Sierra Leone for what he regarded as its siding with the West in the 1980’s when Gaddafi was at loggerhead with particularly the United States and Britain. It was also part of Gaddafi’s broader agenda including his geopolitical ambition to destabilize much of West Africa and establish satellite states in the region to be headed by puppet regimes that will be doing his biddings. The decade-long war ripped Sierra Leone apart. Thousands of its victims, whose arms and limbs were chopped off by rebels, were reduced to paupers, roaming the streets as beggars in Freetown and other cities. Children as young as a day old were also among those whose arms and limbs were hacked off by Gaddafi’s rebels. Pregnant women, too, were disemboweled with delight in their display of ghastly brutality.
From poorrichards blog I have never heard of this. Wow.. I'm sure there are a lot of entities interested in grabbing some control of Gaddafi's Engineering Wonder.., a gigantic fresh water pipeline originating in Southern Libya, ultimately(before, you know, what's happening now..) bringing water to the majority of Libya, creating a self sustaining Agricultural economy. Excerpts from Libya’s Great Man-Made River Project, contained within poorrichards' post. (Colored highlights are from poorrichard)
The 1st of September marks the anniversary of the opening of the major stage of Libya's Great Man-Made River Project. This incredibly huge and successful water scheme is virtually unknown in the West, yet it rivals and even surpasses all our greatest development projects. The leader of the so-called advanced countries, the United States of America cannot bring itself to acknowledge Libya's Great Man-Made River. The West refuses to recognize that a small country, with a population no more than four million, can construct anything so large without borrowing a single cent from the international banks.
..
In the 1960s during oil exploration deep in the southern Libyan desert, vast reservoirs of high quality water were discovered in the form of aquifers.
The emphasis here is mine..
...In Libya there are four major underground basins, these being the Kufra basin, the Sirt basin, the Morzuk basin and the Hamada basin, the first three of which contain combined reserves of 35,000 cubic kilometres of water. These vast reserves offer almost unlimited amounts of water for the Libyan people.
The people of Libya under the guidance of their leader, Colonel Muammar Al Qadhafi, initiated a series of scientific studies on the possibility of accessing this vast ocean of fresh water. Early consideration was given to developing new agricultural projects close to the sources of the water, in the desert. However, it was realized that on the scale required to provide products for self sufficiency, a very large infrastructure organization would be required. In addition to this, a major redistribution of the population from the coastal belt would be necessary. The alternative was to 'bring the water to the people'.
..
The Great Man-Made River, as the largest water transport project ever undertaken, has been described as the "eighth wonder of the world". It carries more than five million cubic metres of water per day across the desert to coastal areas, vastly increasing the amount of arable land. The total cost of the huge project is expected to exceed $25 billion (US).
Consisting of a network of pipes buried underground to eliminate evaporation, four meters in diameter, the project extends for four thousand kilometres far deep into the desert. All material is locally engineered and manufactured. Underground water is pumped from 270 wells hundreds of meters deep into reservoirs that feed the network. The cost of one cubic meter of water equals 35 cents. The cubic meter of desalinized water is $3.75. Scientists estimate the amount of water to be equivalent to the flow of 200 years of water in the Nile River.
poorrichards emphasis:
The goal of the Libyan Arab people, embodied in the Great Man-Made River project, is to make Libya a source of agricultural abundance, capable of producing adequate food and water to supply its own needs and to share with neighboring countries. In short, the River is literally Libya's 'meal ticket' to self-sufficiency.
This strengthens Libya's potential as resource provider for the region, maybe stretching further into Europe or Africa or both.. Knowing this adds an extra dimension for interpretation of events.
Libya Now, Iran Then: How Close Are We to 1979? Gonzalo Lira. Excerpts:
Today, the UK’s Telegraph is reporting that British government drones in Whitehall are figuring out the legal means to seize Muammar al-Gaddafi’s assets in Britain, which are said to total some £20 billion.
..
That these assets are going to be seized is, according to the story, a done deal: The only issue seems to be the legal means by which to do so—
—which means that the British government isn’t worried about pissing off Gaddafi—
—which means that Gaddafi’s days in power are numbered: Whitehall would never dare seize his UK assets, unless they were sure that Gaddafi won’t be around to exact revenge or retribution. After all, the Brits let the Lockerbie Bomber go in 2009, in order to shore up relations with Gaddafi.
Lira's article continues by exploring a comparison of economic/global circumstances between '79's Iranian Revolution and and Now. Short answer? 2011 does not fare well, as circumstances in 1979 were way better. Way better.
My point being, England has assessed that Gaddafi is, without a doubt, going down. Killed or Captured or Captured Then Killed, they're sure he's not going to talk, so they're going for his cash. Not the worst thing in the world, right? Lira then brings up the possibility of the beginnings of what could be many oil shocks, the likes of which America can't survive.. Excerpts from original article..
Now, what happened after 1979’s Iranian Oil Shock? Like I said: Severe inflation, unemployment, and a Fed that had to raise rates catastrophically, in order to stop an inflation that was spiralling out of control.
But back in 1979, there was no kindling for that inflationary fire. Federal Reserve money policies were fairly responsible. The Federal government’s total debt and liabilities was less than 50% of GDP. Back in 1979, the U-3 unemployment rate was about 5%, compared to over 9% today.
Back in 1979, there was no ZIRP, no QE2, no $1.6 trillion deficit. There weren’t so many freshly-minted dollars sloshing around, looking for yields like army ants looking for dead meat. There wasn’t a total government debt that was bigger than the total gross domestic product of the United States.
In short, back in 1979, the economy, the fiscal situation and the monetary policy were far healthier than they are today.
Yet the 1979 Oil Shock brought us the worst recession since the Great Depression.
And that is very, very bad for us today, in 2011.
Seriously: Shouldn't we be taking all the alternative energy projects off the back burner and fast tracking Every Bit Of It right now? We as a society can see the potential cataclysm in front of us: Shouldn't we start talking about directions away from disaster, or at least trying to cushion the impact?
Then again, it was Way Too Late way before I wrote these words.
The Tsunami Approaches, and we stare; transfixed.
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