Iran not behind Mideast protests: Mullen

From SpaceWar. And no, Mike Mullen's no lefty freak Iran apologist.  He's the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  Excerpts:

Iran foments instability in the Middle East but is not behind popular protests in Bahrain and other countries in the region, top US military officer Admiral Mike Mullen said Monday in Qatar.

"Iran, I still believe, is a country that continues to foment instability in the region, take advantage of every opportunity," But "from my perspective that has not been the principal focus of what happened in Egypt or what happened in Bahrain or any of these other countries,"

"Those are by and large internal issues, as opposed to issues fomented by some external forces," Mullen said, although "there's always concerns in this region with Iran and certainly the US has them as well as all the regional players."
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"As far as Fifth Fleet operations, no, the demonstrations have not had any impact here -- we're continuing to conduct our regular business out here," a spokesman for the Fifth Fleet told AFP on Monday.

In the Qatari capital Doha, Mullen met with Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and army chief of staff General Hamad al-Attiyah.

He's right. Say what you want about Iran, but they didn't provide/provoke the tipping-point influence needed for either uprising in Tunisia or Egypt.  Tunisia fell after years of combination economic hardship, no jobs, a corrupt, nepotistic regime, and no future prospects for its citizens.  Tunisia reached its flash point when a 26 year old self-immolated(who was no revolutionary himself), frustration morphed into rage, and Revolution took hold within the Tunisian collective consciousness.

Egypt's revolution was not only a response to Mubarak's authoritarianism, but it was mostly a food riot extrapolated out to governmental overthrow, brought on by Ben Bernanke.  Thanks Ben!  The Washington Post's analysis is about half right:  Let's do some excerpts:

DOES BEN S. BERNANKE, the Federal Reserve chairman, deserve the blame - or the credit, depending on your point of view - for Hosni Mubarak's plight? Some seem to think so. Last August, Mr. Bernanke announced further Fed asset purchases known colloquially as "quantitative easing II," or "QEII" for short. The goal was to ease monetary conditions in the United States and fuel growth. But cheaper money lowered the costs and raised the rewards of speculating on food and energy, relative to some other investments. The latest rise in commodity prices began around the time of Mr. Bernanke's announcement; expensive food triggered unrest first in Tunisia and then in Egypt. Ergo, Mr. Bernanke undermined Mr. Mubarak - or so the argument goes.

Here's where The Post doesn't go far enough..

Still, Mr. Bernanke was probably right to deny that the Fed is "primarily responsible" for the current price run-up. The spike in wheat prices, which determines the price of bread in Cairo, began before QEII, when drought destroyed Russian crops. (Yes, but QEII exacerbated the crisis to boiling point. The absence of a single(or two, for that matter..)crop/commodity, even wheat, won't necessarily throw a society into chaos.  17 percent yearly inflation on people who make 2 dollars a day?  Now the promise of inevitable starvation, that's the kind of thing that freaks societies out.)  Subsequent floods in Australia have destroyed more wheat. As for other foodstuffs and oil, the continuing rapid growth of investment and middle-class consumption in China and India probably explains much recent inflation - just as it will probably drive future price increases in those goods. (Damn China and India for growing.  Just because their economy's are growing does not mean they're eating That Much More food to cause a significant Global agricultural distortion that would cause double digit inflation.  Yes, their populations are growing, but this cause/effect is too rapid for population increase to be a primary factor.).  Ugh.  Not a mention here as to how commodities traders influence global food prices, so when disaster does strike a crop, traders make much more money while doubling the effects of drought or flood on those who couldn't afford prices BEFORE said drought or flood happened..)

Reforming those misbegotten programs(Involving Sugar and Cotton--my clarification) would probably improve global commodity markets more than abolishing QEII, which ends in a few months anyway. (Bullshit.  The damage is done.  After QEII, will prices magically decrease, or will they stay at the same level/continue to rise as they do during inflationary periods?  My Unicorn says prices will decrease.)

Higher food prices do, indeed, hurt the poor. But the focus should be on alleviating their suffering - not on alleged political effects(Overthrowing their corrupt, misery causing governments IS Alleviating Their Suffering, ya big dumb douche!  Put differently:  Focus on the political effects of food inflation again, led to governmental overthrow, thereby alleviating the people's suffering.  Hey!  We ended up in the same place..). Costlier food all by itself is not destabilizing; there are no food riots in democratic India or the Philippines(Yet.  Yet.).  As Egypt and Tunisia prove, it's the combination of misery and tyranny that's combustible(At present.  Let's check back in December).

Bahrain might be the likeliest candidate for Iranian influence, or it might be the Shia majority is sick of the Sunni minority's oppressive rule.  This might be why:

"In Bahrain, you have the majority Shia, who are oppressed, and the minority Sunnis, who have all the money and all the power. That's a pretty volatile combination."



The extent of the economic divide between the Sunni ruling class and the Shiite majority is shocking, said Toby Jones, an assistant professor of history at Rutgers University and an editor at the Middle East Report political journal, who lived in Bahrain for several years in the mid-2000s.

"Nationally, Bahrain is a very poor country and the wealth that does get created is concentrated in the hands of the rulers and the influential," he said. "… I’ve never seen wretched poverty like I’ve seen in Bahrain."

Factors that spurred Libya's current bloodbath?  Inertia, and Gaddafi as mass murderer are two good guesses, for the moment..  Again, Iran just isn't a factor.  Iran's own protests have been squelched for the moment, so whether Revolution Inertia ultimately spread to Tehran remains to be seen. 

Until any credible evidence actually surfaces regarding Iran's influence on any effected country's problems, all narratives regarding factors should be assumed Internal, not due to External pressures from anyone in Iran.  If evidence points otherwise, I'll revisit my stance.  But right now, no such evidence seems to exist.  

 

The World Saw The Egypt Uprising End February 11th, But It Actually Ended January 30th

Mubarak ordered Tienanmen-style massacre of demonstrators, Army refused. This was a really interesting day without this context, but now it all makes sense.. Excerpts:

Buried in this Robert Fisk report for The Independent is a startling account of the Egyptian army refusing to move with tanks against the Tahrir Square protesters on January 30.
..(This is an excerpt from Fisk's report)But the critical moment came on the evening of 30 January when, it is now clear, Mubarak ordered the Egyptian Third Army to crush the demonstrators in Tahrir Square with their tanks after flying F-16 fighter bombers at low level over the protesters.
Many of the senior tank commanders could be seen tearing off their headsets – over which they had received the fatal orders – to use their mobile phones. They were, it now transpires, calling their own military families for advice. Fathers who had spent their lives serving the Egyptian army told their sons to disobey, that they must never kill their own people.
..
.. when General Hassan al-Rawani told the massive crowds yesterday evening that "everything you want will be realised – all your demands will be met", the people cried back: "The army and the people stand together – the army and the people are united. The army and the people belong to one hand." (It's like they knew..)

Mubarak, indeed, behaved the only way he knew how: Crush any opposition with brutal force. He was stopped by the collective integrity within his military ranks, those moral enough to realize the inequality of one man's power, and how he would so freely use that power against their countrymen, their friends, their family.. And they said "No."
But Mubarak tried. Again, he had no choice. He is mentally inflexible, and knew no other way to behave.

Also: Is Mubarak dead, hoax dead, or just much more close?

Egypt: Having Trouble Visualizing The Connections And Influence Of The Internet On The Egyptian Revolution?

This should help.. And in the spirit of a connected 'Net, I found this from Xymphora, who found it on Mondoweiss, who linked to it from its creator, Kovas Boguta. Super fascinating. (Checking out his connectivity map is essential for understanding, so go there first!) Excerpts:
The map is arranged to place individuals near the individuals they influence, and factions near the factions they influence. The color is based on the language they tweet in..
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(Wael Ghonim).. is prominently located near the bottom of the network, straddling two factions as well as two languages. The size of his node reflects his influence on the entire network.

The lump on the left is dominated by journalists, NGO and foreign policy types; it seems nearly grafted on, and goes through an intermediary buffer layer before making contact with the true Egyptian activists on the ground. However, this process of translation and aggregation is key; it is how those in Egypt are finally getting a voice in Western society, and an insurance policy against regime violence.
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Some protesters only spoke Arabic but..others make an effort to be visible to the rest of the world on purpose. They want to reach out, and connect with, the rest of the global society.
..
In a case of ironic symbolism, the far left-most satellites are the Whitehouse, State Department, and Wael Ghonim's employer, Eric Schmidt, who is merely a speck on the map. (In other words, they had no idea what was happening on the street, and absolutely no influence on the unfolding events..)And that's probably how everyone in the rest of the network would like this future to look.

I'm doing a bit of paragraph reshuffling here, but a sentence from Boguta's opening statement is the perfect summation:
The Egyptians use of Twitter captures.. the freedom of expression and association that is possible in that medium, and which is representative of a new collective consciousness taking form.

Already, the data is being compiled and analyzed. What didn't work has been noted, and what worked is being modified to fit other country's specific circumstances. We have seen minor examples (in comparison) of the Internet's power of expression and organization, but what happened in Egypt has tapped that potential and shown the world, tangibly, the power of information, and the speed of which it can(and will)be disseminated and acted upon.

What we saw was not just the overthrow of an authoritarian regime or the creation of a new political dynamic in the Middle East, but the fledgling steps of that global collective consciousness and its burgeoning self awareness. Connectivity and expression doesn't rely on power, money, and influence. Mubarak's billions and iron fisted control couldn't put down the 'Net or keep him in power. Global thought just took a great leap forward, and while recent events are hugely important in what will be our documented History, the beginnings of the awareness of What Can Be began not only on the streets, but also on the servers, of Cairo.

Egypt: If A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words, These Two Are Worth Much, Much More..

Two 'Revolutions': Egypt 2011 v. Iraq 2003 Thank you, Bradblog! (Be sure to read the comments..) Great comparison/contrast regarding a fake, corporate media/ foreign government-manipulated "revolutionary movement," and the real thing we just witnessed. Xymphora echoes this sentiment..

When was the last time we've seen a successful bottom-up revolution? Lots of fake ones bought by the Americans - easily distinguished from the real thing - but no real ones.
This is a serious precedent, not only for the Middle East. People around the world can see what is possible even in the face of what seems like overwhelming forces of evil.

Now that Mubarak has been removed, Egyptians face the equally impossible task of walking the political tightrope of establishing a new political order, sorting out useful and harmful alliances and policies, and fixing the economy. All the while, they must shield themselves from the manipulations of external forces and agents provocateurs, be they individuals, organizations, regime holdovers, or former allied governments. Good luck.

Whether you like it or not, your country has become The Standard by which others will look to for guidance and strategy in what will assuredly be repeated the world over, near and long term. Continue to choose wisely, please, and execute your plans with the political grace historians will document and celebrate, years upon years into the future..

All Hail The Peoples' Peaceful Revolution!

Amazing. I went to bed at 4a.m. last night with a terrible, ominous feeling, fully expecting to wake up to a full scale Mubarak blow-back in the form of some globally broadcast massacre. It's a testament to the collective will and temperament of the Egyptian people that they weren't, throughout the course of this uprising, baited into any kind of violent response. The demonstrators were resolute, the crowds got bigger, the class distinctions blurred, the working infrastructure ground to a halt, and finally, Mubarak had no alternative but to step down. The way in which Egyptian society handled this crisis was note perfect, and will be studied for years to come, both by advocates of non-violent resistance, and those wanting to crush those future movements.

In the coming weeks, the Egyptians(along with Israel, the rest of the Middle East, and the World) will have a host of issues to contend with, including fixing the damage done to the economy, how the Military will transition power , what form of government will emerge, and what the dynamics of the region will finally become.

But for the next few days, let the Egyptians celebrate what they have given themselves and the entire world: Hope upon hope for a happy ending under the most impossible of circumstances. The rest of us are indebted to your courage and strength. Thank you.

Egypt: Fluid And Flammable

Egypt protesters vow massive demonstrations Excerpts:

Egypt's people-power protesters, reeling with disillusion and anger after President Hosni Mubarak disappointed their hopes he was about to resign, planned massive new demonstrations on Friday that may test the army's loyalties.

The increasingly sour confrontation after 17 days of unrest has raised fears of violence in the most populous Arab nation, a key U.S. ally in an oil-rich region where the chance of disorder spreading to other repressive states has troubled world markets.
..
"My great fear is that if the demonstrations don't end that the military begins to split over this. You may have younger commanders who don't want to go down with the ship," said Elliott Abrams, a former U.S. deputy national security adviser.

"If the demonstrations build ... then you once again face the army with the choice they have sought to avoid -- put the demonstrations down or get rid of Mubarak. They have managed so far not to make that choice, but if the people stay in the streets then they are going to have to make that choice."
..
Nobel Peace laureate and leading democracy advocate Mohamed ElBaradei predicted "Egypt will explode" and called on the military to intervene in response to Mubarak's refusal to step down.

"The Army must save the country now," he said in a Twitter post.

Mubarak's speech re-enforced the fact that he's mentally inflexible, and possibly suffering from dementia.. Or he's completely insane; either/or..

It looks like Obama is back on The People's side, but won't be doing too much about it, save a pronouncement here and there..

Egypt Strikes Continue As Doctors, Lawyers Join Protests Good news, especially if pro-Mubarak thugs attack the demonstrators.. The doctors can patch them up, and the lawyers can gather affidavits on the spot!

Meanwhile in Europe.. EU leaders call for government change in Egypt as Mubarak vows to stay

Egypt's economy is shaky as hell at the moment, and investors along with the Central Bank are getting a little freaked out.. But I guess losing 310 million dollars a day would cause some anxiety..

Omar Suleiman: Not nice.

The crowds are already gathering for today's protest. Everybody seems to be holding their breath: How big will this demonstration be, and can it remain peaceful?

Egypt Update: February 10, 2011

The People aren't intimidated: The Protests are getting larger..

The demonstrators are pissed about Mubarak and family's 70 billion dollar fortune and workers country wide are going Norma Rae in response, and the Really Poor started burning stuff. Excerpts:

Strikes erupted in a breadth of sectors _ among railway and bus workers, state electricity staff and service technicians at the Suez Canal, in factories manufacturing textiles, steel and beverages and at least one hospital.

In one of the flashpoints of unrest Wednesday, some 8,000 protesters, mainly farmers, set barricades of flaming palm trees in the southern province of Assiut. They blocked the main highway and railway to Cairo to complain of bread shortages. They then drove off the governor by pelting his van with stones.

Hundreds of slum dwellers in the Suez Canal city of Port Said set fire to part of the governor's headquarters in anger over lack of housing.
..

Egyptians have been infuriated by newspaper reports that the Mubarak family has amassed billions, and perhaps tens of billions of dollars in wealth while, according to the World Bank, about 40 percent of the country's 80 million people live below or near the poverty line of $2 a day. The family's true net worth is not known.

And yet, The Regime refuses to budge.. That will only work against them, later..

The Obama administration's response sucks, as it seems to be returning to how the U.S. normally deals with the fall of a dictatorship: Replace it with another. No Change, there.. Really disappointing excerpts:

After a good start, the Obama administration's response to the democratic revolution in Egypt has begun to exude the odor of betrayal. Now distancing itself from the essential demand of the protesters that the dictator must go, the administration has fallen back on the sordid option of backing a new and improved dictatorship. Predictably, it is one guided by a local strongman long entrusted by the CIA, Vice President Omar Suleiman, described by U.S. officials in the WikiLeaks cables as a "Mubarak consigliere." The script is out of an all-too-familiar playbook: Pick this longtime chief of Egyptian intelligence who has consistently done our bidding in matters of torture and retrofit him as a modern democratic leader. But this time the Egyptian street will not meekly go along.

Anyone else perplexed that the new hero of Egypt is a Google executive?



Not too much follow up on this one, but I'm guessing it has something to do with Egypt or the Middle East..

Egypt Today, February 8, 2011

Egypt Talks Start on Sidelining Mubarak With Protest in Day 12
Bad sign: U.S. supports gradual reform in Egypt
Egypt's new cabinet meets as protests continue
Greater impacts: Mideast change: The scenarios is less about Egypt and more about Israel.
Change "partly" to "mostly," and you're on-track.. Egypt's unrest tied partly to high food prices
Hezbollah leader says Egypt protests will transform Mideast by pulling nation away from Israel

Egypt: Telecoms Are Tattling..

Vodafone: Egypt forced us to send text messages Excerpts:

Egyptian authorities forced Vodafone to broadcast pro-government text messages during the protests that have rocked the country, the U.K.-based mobile company said Thursday.

Micro-blogging site Twitter has been buzzing with screen grabs from Vodafone's Egyptian customers showing text messages sent over the course of the demonstrations against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year-old regime.

A text message received Sunday by an Associated Press reporter in Egypt appealed to the country's "honest and loyal men to confront the traitors and criminals and protect our people and honor." Another urged Egyptians to attend a pro-Mubarak rally in Cairo on Wednesday. The first was marked as coming from "Vodafone." The other was signed: "Egypt Lovers."
And:
The company also said its competitors — including Egypt's Mobinil and the United Arab Emirates' Etisalat — were doing the same. Etisalat, known formally as Emirates Telecommunications Corp., declined comment.

Vodafone said the texts had been sent "since the start of the protests," which kicked off more than a week ago. Vodafone did not immediately return an e-mail asking why the company waited nearly 10 days to complain publicly. Its statement was released only after repeated inquiries by the AP.

The U.S. is dancing as fast as it can, at the moment, and it seems clear that Mubarak will either go quickly, or hunker down and go violently. Everything about Egypt is politically grey: Mubarak is an American ally, but a non-democratic authoritarian. The protesters might be pro-democratic or (booga booga) Muslim Brotherhood, so we aren't sure who to root for: The dictator, or the potential terrorists?

This isn't too much of an exaggeration, is it, considering America's complete loss of nuanced thought.. It will be interesting, if not maddening, I'm sure, to see how both the situation evolves, and how American and Western discourse evolves in their reaction to said events.

At this point in time, every day feels a little more fluid than the last.