The World Saw The Egypt Uprising End February 11th, But It Actually Ended January 30th

Mubarak ordered Tienanmen-style massacre of demonstrators, Army refused. This was a really interesting day without this context, but now it all makes sense.. Excerpts:

Buried in this Robert Fisk report for The Independent is a startling account of the Egyptian army refusing to move with tanks against the Tahrir Square protesters on January 30.
..(This is an excerpt from Fisk's report)But the critical moment came on the evening of 30 January when, it is now clear, Mubarak ordered the Egyptian Third Army to crush the demonstrators in Tahrir Square with their tanks after flying F-16 fighter bombers at low level over the protesters.
Many of the senior tank commanders could be seen tearing off their headsets – over which they had received the fatal orders – to use their mobile phones. They were, it now transpires, calling their own military families for advice. Fathers who had spent their lives serving the Egyptian army told their sons to disobey, that they must never kill their own people.
..
.. when General Hassan al-Rawani told the massive crowds yesterday evening that "everything you want will be realised – all your demands will be met", the people cried back: "The army and the people stand together – the army and the people are united. The army and the people belong to one hand." (It's like they knew..)

Mubarak, indeed, behaved the only way he knew how: Crush any opposition with brutal force. He was stopped by the collective integrity within his military ranks, those moral enough to realize the inequality of one man's power, and how he would so freely use that power against their countrymen, their friends, their family.. And they said "No."
But Mubarak tried. Again, he had no choice. He is mentally inflexible, and knew no other way to behave.

Also: Is Mubarak dead, hoax dead, or just much more close?

All Hail The Peoples' Peaceful Revolution!

Amazing. I went to bed at 4a.m. last night with a terrible, ominous feeling, fully expecting to wake up to a full scale Mubarak blow-back in the form of some globally broadcast massacre. It's a testament to the collective will and temperament of the Egyptian people that they weren't, throughout the course of this uprising, baited into any kind of violent response. The demonstrators were resolute, the crowds got bigger, the class distinctions blurred, the working infrastructure ground to a halt, and finally, Mubarak had no alternative but to step down. The way in which Egyptian society handled this crisis was note perfect, and will be studied for years to come, both by advocates of non-violent resistance, and those wanting to crush those future movements.

In the coming weeks, the Egyptians(along with Israel, the rest of the Middle East, and the World) will have a host of issues to contend with, including fixing the damage done to the economy, how the Military will transition power , what form of government will emerge, and what the dynamics of the region will finally become.

But for the next few days, let the Egyptians celebrate what they have given themselves and the entire world: Hope upon hope for a happy ending under the most impossible of circumstances. The rest of us are indebted to your courage and strength. Thank you.

Egypt Today, February 8, 2011

Egypt Talks Start on Sidelining Mubarak With Protest in Day 12
Bad sign: U.S. supports gradual reform in Egypt
Egypt's new cabinet meets as protests continue
Greater impacts: Mideast change: The scenarios is less about Egypt and more about Israel.
Change "partly" to "mostly," and you're on-track.. Egypt's unrest tied partly to high food prices
Hezbollah leader says Egypt protests will transform Mideast by pulling nation away from Israel

Egypt: Are They Saying "Boo!," Or "Boo-urns?"

Boo-urns, of course. Longer, different reaction video here. Mubarak says he'll leave at the end of his term Excerpts:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak bent to a week of deadly anti-government unrest, announcing in a nationwide speech that he would not seek re-election this year but that he intended to stay in power "for the remaining months" of his fifth term.

Mubarak's late-night address, hours after more than 200,000 protesters had streamed into Cairo's central Tahrir Square, marked a dramatic bid to maneuver through a nationwide revolt, growing international pressure and an economy that has slid into turmoil.

The decision may ease a bit of the fury against him,(It won't. Me)but it is not likely to stop the widespread calls for him to step aside immediately. A wave of anger swept the square just after the speech. Protesters who remained there shouted: "Leave! Leave!"

Humor nugget amongst the seriousness..

"We don't want money or wealth; just respect us as human beings," said Khalid Abdul Rahman, 25, who earns a meager living offering private English lessons. "We have just one word: Get out. Get out."

Two thoughts regarding the mentality of the people involved..

Stated within the parameters of a relationship analogy, The People have reached the "Just get out" phase of this very public national break up. Possibly, had Mubarak reacted differently at the very beginning, this path might have been a little more pleasant.. Maybe. Just like the ending of a dysfunctional and/or abusive relationship, the repressed anger of humiliations and hurting from long ago manifest with a shocking, unexpected ferocity.

The People aren't quite there yet, but "Just get out" is close. "I don't fuckin' care anymore, just get out.." And after 30 years, they're mad. Even if Mubarak scores some military hat trick causing them to turn on the protesters and temporarily puts them down, it's now just a matter of time. These people are unified, and they're all saying "Just get out," and they're not falling for "You'll die without me, baby" anymore(or "If you leave; I'll kill you." at the abusive end of such an analogy.).. (Example video here. Note; Mubarak is Ike, and Egypt is Tina..)

Also, Hosni Mubarak is an old man. For the last 30 years of his life, in his own personal universe and the nation of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak has enjoyed absolute power. Hosni Mubarak called all the shots. Hosni Mubarak had no serious organized opposition. Hosni Mubarak probably became complacent, thinking his situation would never change. Over the last 30 years, Hosni Mubarak has become extremely mentally inflexible.

Hosni Mubarak has done well establishing the Egyptian status quo. These protests have thrown him, as his stasis is disturbed. This uprising is his first widespread domestic conflict.

Hosni Mubarak has never had to think: 1. Out of the box. 2. Like a poor person. 3. Of poor people at all. He simply has no understanding as to how to respond! So he'll cling to his absolute-ness until it's too late.

The inertia has changed. The People are finding their voice and footing, while Hosni Mubarak is losing his. Barring a massive, brutal reaction, the regime of Hosni Mubarak is on life support, at best. And here comes day nine..

Egypt: Meanwhile, Not In Cairo..

Egypt: Unrest Spreads to Sinai Excerpts:

A Bedouin youth casually spreads out a piece of cloth before a police headquarters in Sheikh Zwayyed town in Sinai, the vast desert area to the east of Cairo across the Suez. "I will leave when Mubarak leaves," he says.

He joins hundreds of others. They have broken through into the police station already, and are now camping there to demand a change in government. Most youth are Bedouin, originally a nomadic tribe in the desert, who’ve been fighting for their rights for years. Over the last few days they feel they’re winning.

The police are rapidly leaving their posts, but some still appear in uniform. One uniformed policeman stands quietly to a side. He is in danger, he seems no danger to others at all. What would he do if attacked? "Just take my uniform off and join the protest," he tells IPS. "Or maybe just go over to the Palestinian side."
..
New groups have taken charge, and it’s hard to say who these are. Several check-posts have been set up all the way between Cairo and Sinai. "Who are you," says a man at one of these checkpoints. This IPS correspondent offers him his Palestinian passport. He glances at it, upside down, and pockets it. After some time he gives it back.

State security in plain clothes, riot police, secret police, the army, Bedouin youth, protesters who had come from Cairo to spread the word – no one seems to know who the people at these check-points are.
And:
The area appears to have drawn many powerful and armed groups that have converged to free their associates and relatives from the prisons. They look determined to succeed. Some of the men carry heavy weapons.

The groups mingle freely with local Bedouin youth. The deprivation across this area is greater than Cairo has ever known. And the anger seems greater too.

With the anger, Bedouin youth now present a face of triumph. "It is a revolution," one says simply.

This (national) event is still in escalation. The media has concentrated on Cairo and Alexandria, leaving outlying areas out of their coverage, unfactored into the national sentiment. This conflict has developed and bloomed in less than ten days, with no sign of conclusion. Of course, that could change abruptly, but events could continue to play out for weeks, possibly months. Cairo is the visual, but smaller but no less fervent protests are happening elsewhere, too..

The March has already started. Whatever happens, tonight will look much different than last night..

Egypt: Is The Worm Indeed Turning?

Egypt set for mass protest as army rules out force Good news. Will that promise hold? Excerpts:

Egypt's army gave a powerful boost to the country's opposition last night by announcing that it would not use force to silence "legitimate" demands for democratic reforms in the Arab world's largest nation.

On the eve of a million-strong protest planned for today and amid multiplying signs that the US is moving steadily closer to ditching its long-standing ally, Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, now has few options left.
..
The military's statement, reported by the state-run Mena news agency, said: "The presence of the army in the streets is for your sake and to ensure your safety and wellbeing. The armed forces will not resort to use of force against our great people." It referred to the "legitimate demands of honourable citizens".

It was not clear whether the pledge not to use force was intended to draw the sting from protests or signal a weakening of support for the president, who relies heavily on the armed forces as the guarantor of the regime and its stability.
..
Obama met Middle East experts yesterday as his administration tried to find a path to a post-Mubarak era that continues to serve its interests, including ensuring that Egypt maintains its 30-year peace treaty with Israel. US hopes are solidifying around the reformist Mohamed ElBaradei, despite his difficult relationship with the US after he undermined Washington's claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction when he was head of the IAEA, and his criticism of Obama's failure to ask Mubarak to resign.
It's got to be eating the West's(and Israel's) lunch that, despite their earlier hesitations into denunciations, this uprising is still happening.

Tony Blair, envoy for the Middle East Quartet, stopped short of calling for Mubarak to step down: "Change will happen," he said. "You can't put the genie back in the bottle now." William Hague, the foreign secretary, said after meeting EU colleagues: "We are setting down what should happen [in Egypt] in terms of values, process and institutions, but not trying to dictate precise timetable of elections."

Analysts believe that a likely outcome of the crisis is that Mubarak will eventually be persuaded to stand down by his closest advisers, including the army top brass and Suleiman. The US has close links to the Egyptian military.

Google(!) and Twitter(ugh--!!)come down on the side of the people!

Egyptians gather for mass march to oust Mubarak Here's the most interesting portion, as it seems to represent a policy/momentum/perceptual shift:

The military, which has run Egypt since it toppled the monarchy in 1952, will be the key player in deciding who replaces him and some expect it to retain significant power while introducing enough reforms to defuse the protests.

"At this point Suleiman represents the army, not Mubarak,"said Fawaz Gerges at the London School of Economics.

Not all the army, though. Maybe the factions tied to Mubarak, but not all the Military. The Army is made up of poor Egyptians--the people. The new Vice President, Omar Suleiman, likes discipline. You think these people don't know that?

Our beloved Revolutionary Sweethearts: The Bangles