Showing posts with label El Baradei. Show all posts
Showing posts with label El Baradei. Show all posts

Friday, February 11, 2011

Egypt: Fluid And Flammable

Egypt protesters vow massive demonstrations Excerpts:

Egypt's people-power protesters, reeling with disillusion and anger after President Hosni Mubarak disappointed their hopes he was about to resign, planned massive new demonstrations on Friday that may test the army's loyalties.

The increasingly sour confrontation after 17 days of unrest has raised fears of violence in the most populous Arab nation, a key U.S. ally in an oil-rich region where the chance of disorder spreading to other repressive states has troubled world markets.
..
"My great fear is that if the demonstrations don't end that the military begins to split over this. You may have younger commanders who don't want to go down with the ship," said Elliott Abrams, a former U.S. deputy national security adviser.

"If the demonstrations build ... then you once again face the army with the choice they have sought to avoid -- put the demonstrations down or get rid of Mubarak. They have managed so far not to make that choice, but if the people stay in the streets then they are going to have to make that choice."
..
Nobel Peace laureate and leading democracy advocate Mohamed ElBaradei predicted "Egypt will explode" and called on the military to intervene in response to Mubarak's refusal to step down.

"The Army must save the country now," he said in a Twitter post.

Mubarak's speech re-enforced the fact that he's mentally inflexible, and possibly suffering from dementia.. Or he's completely insane; either/or..

It looks like Obama is back on The People's side, but won't be doing too much about it, save a pronouncement here and there..

Egypt Strikes Continue As Doctors, Lawyers Join Protests Good news, especially if pro-Mubarak thugs attack the demonstrators.. The doctors can patch them up, and the lawyers can gather affidavits on the spot!

Meanwhile in Europe.. EU leaders call for government change in Egypt as Mubarak vows to stay

Egypt's economy is shaky as hell at the moment, and investors along with the Central Bank are getting a little freaked out.. But I guess losing 310 million dollars a day would cause some anxiety..

Omar Suleiman: Not nice.

The crowds are already gathering for today's protest. Everybody seems to be holding their breath: How big will this demonstration be, and can it remain peaceful?


Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Egypt: Are They Saying "Boo!," Or "Boo-urns?"

Boo-urns, of course. Longer, different reaction video here. Mubarak says he'll leave at the end of his term Excerpts:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak bent to a week of deadly anti-government unrest, announcing in a nationwide speech that he would not seek re-election this year but that he intended to stay in power "for the remaining months" of his fifth term.

Mubarak's late-night address, hours after more than 200,000 protesters had streamed into Cairo's central Tahrir Square, marked a dramatic bid to maneuver through a nationwide revolt, growing international pressure and an economy that has slid into turmoil.

The decision may ease a bit of the fury against him,(It won't. Me)but it is not likely to stop the widespread calls for him to step aside immediately. A wave of anger swept the square just after the speech. Protesters who remained there shouted: "Leave! Leave!"

Humor nugget amongst the seriousness..

"We don't want money or wealth; just respect us as human beings," said Khalid Abdul Rahman, 25, who earns a meager living offering private English lessons. "We have just one word: Get out. Get out."

Two thoughts regarding the mentality of the people involved..

Stated within the parameters of a relationship analogy, The People have reached the "Just get out" phase of this very public national break up. Possibly, had Mubarak reacted differently at the very beginning, this path might have been a little more pleasant.. Maybe. Just like the ending of a dysfunctional and/or abusive relationship, the repressed anger of humiliations and hurting from long ago manifest with a shocking, unexpected ferocity.

The People aren't quite there yet, but "Just get out" is close. "I don't fuckin' care anymore, just get out.." And after 30 years, they're mad. Even if Mubarak scores some military hat trick causing them to turn on the protesters and temporarily puts them down, it's now just a matter of time. These people are unified, and they're all saying "Just get out," and they're not falling for "You'll die without me, baby" anymore(or "If you leave; I'll kill you." at the abusive end of such an analogy.).. (Example video here. Note; Mubarak is Ike, and Egypt is Tina..)

Also, Hosni Mubarak is an old man. For the last 30 years of his life, in his own personal universe and the nation of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak has enjoyed absolute power. Hosni Mubarak called all the shots. Hosni Mubarak had no serious organized opposition. Hosni Mubarak probably became complacent, thinking his situation would never change. Over the last 30 years, Hosni Mubarak has become extremely mentally inflexible.

Hosni Mubarak has done well establishing the Egyptian status quo. These protests have thrown him, as his stasis is disturbed. This uprising is his first widespread domestic conflict.

Hosni Mubarak has never had to think: 1. Out of the box. 2. Like a poor person. 3. Of poor people at all. He simply has no understanding as to how to respond! So he'll cling to his absolute-ness until it's too late.

The inertia has changed. The People are finding their voice and footing, while Hosni Mubarak is losing his. Barring a massive, brutal reaction, the regime of Hosni Mubarak is on life support, at best. And here comes day nine..

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Egyptian Police Redeploying

Big and bad news. Excerpts:

Egypt’s internal security forces are reportedly redeploying across the country Jan. 30 after abandoning the streets the previous day in a demonstration, showing what chaos would ensue should they be undermined by the military. As the protests show early signs of dwindling, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Interior Minister Habib al-Adly, who have negotiated a stay in power so far, are likely betting that the protesters, who thus far have been unable to coalesce into a unified group, will clear the streets under pressure. However, serious potential for clashes remain, especially considering hostilities between the army and the police and between the police and protesters. The coming hours will thus tell whether Mubarak’s bet on the opposition was a wise one.
And:
The decision to redeploy the internal security forces follows a major confrontation that has played out behind the scenes between the Interior Ministry and the military. The animosity between Egypt’s police and soldiers was amplified Jan. 28 when demonstrators overwhelmed the CSF and plainclothes police and the army stepped in to attempt to restore order.

Fearing that he and his forces were being sidelined, al-Adly was rumored to have ordered the police forces to stay home and leave it to the army to deal with the crisis. Meanwhile, multiple STRATFOR sources reported that many of the plainclothes policemen were involved in a number of the jailbreaks, robberies of major banks, and the spread of attacks and break-ins into high-class neighborhoods that occurred Jan. 29. In addition to allowing the police to blow off steam, the implicit message that the Interior Ministry was sending to the army through these actions was that the cost of undermining the internal security forces was a complete breakdown of law and order in the country that would in turn break the regime.
And:
Within the next few hours, police and military officials are expected to redeploy in large numbers across major cities, with the CSF taking the first line of defense. Tensions are still running high between the internal security forces and the military, which could lead to serious clashes between the army and police on the streets. The size and scope of the protests appear to be dwindling into the low thousands, though there is still potential for the demonstrations to swell again after protesters rest themselves and wake up to the same government they have been trying to remove. Moreover, as the events of Jan. 28 and 29 illustrated, protesters are far more likely to clash with the CSF than with the military.

Two powerful and concise posts from the amazing Xymphora regarding the crisis: The one sentence post "Looting," and the perfectly laid out, this-is-most-likely-Mubarak's-plan "Schemes of the Pharaoh." Here's a taste..

You withdraw the police, and use the undercover police to loot and pillage ("2 looters were just caught in Muharram Beyh neighborhood of Alexandria who had police ID cards and were members of undercover plainclothes force."), empty prisons, and play up the dangers on local television, thus frightening the middle classes. You even attack strong symbols of the country in looting the Egyptian Museum ('a high-ranking member of the ruling National Democratic Party was involved in the attack on the museum'). The message is that the strong hand of the 'father' is needed to preserve order. As bad as things are, they could be worse.

Mubarak's regime still has home court advantage. Will the people continue on, or will Mubarak's strategies wear them down, and ultimately prevail? Do the people need to agree about anything else, at the moment, other than the removal of Mubarak, his administration, and his spheres of influence?