Silver: Wait For It.. Wait For It..

This isn't advice for you to act upon, but personally, I'm still a firm buy/hold.  Silver will prevail.  So pop some popcorn and get comfortable before the movie starts..


Commodity prices rise with global issues in flux  Second week of April.


Investors poured money into oil, metals and agricultural products despite the uncertainty of what may lie ahead for the United States, Europe's financial problems and uprisings in Libya and neighboring countries.



An added incentive was a weaker dollar. Commodities are priced in dollars so a weaker dollar makes them more appealing to investors using other currencies.


Gold Settles Above $1,557, Silver Off Lows After Bin Laden  CNBC.  Excerpts:


Silver [XAG=  42.16    0.52  (+1.25%)   ] was down 2 percent at $46.86 an ounce, having fallen as much as $5 to a two-week low of $42.58.


Silver's sell-off began last week when U.S. futures margin requirements were raised twice, and as the metal's failure to extend record highs above $50 an ounce triggered technical selling. Trade data also showed speculators had scaled back their bullish bets recently.


Silver tumbled as much as 11 percent, its steepest fall since late 2008, hit by increased margins for futures trading and a technical overhang after a 170 percent rally over the last 12 months to a record high last week.


"News about Osama and the 13 percent margin increase — the second in a week (Read:  Moving the Goalposts..) — hit the market at the worst possible time," said Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank. "Also,(there was) news Friday evening that professionals scaled back silver exposure by 26 percent as of last Tuesday.


"We are seeing volatility at an unprecedented level here," he said.

Kitco chart from Urban Survival.

Silver's Shine Is Fading Fast  CNBC.

Silver's shine is fading fast, and the market for the precious metal may have reached a top in a speculative, mad dash by ETF investors.

"The last move higher over the last month or so has really been driven by the strength of the retail investment demand, so the levels up here are not supported," said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst with Barclays Capital.

"At levels above $40, we've seen some concern rising on the industrial demand side. The last leg higher has been investment-driven, rather than fundamentally supported. In that respect, the correction was due. I would say from a demand support point of view, we have levels that have been tested in other metals, but we haven't had a chance to test that in silver," said Cooper.  "I think now prices are going to test where physical support comes in." 

All of which presumes the Dollar will remain at least stable or gain in strength.  So when the Dollar inevitably seizes, precious metals will spike with the rapidity the word "spike" infers.  Again, not advice, but I'm not going anywhere..

Silver's Ascent Has Begun.. Maybe..

1:06 a.m. Central, April 25:  $48.84  Kitco chart via Urban Survival.

China Proposes To Cut Two Thirds Of Its $3 Trillion In USD Holdings  The ripple effect of even reporting this will cause all commodities to surge, gold included, but especially silver.  Excerpts:

All those who were hoping global stock markets would surge tomorrow based on a ridiculous rumor that China would revalue the CNY by 10% will have to wait. Instead, China has decided to serve the world another surprise. Following last week's announcement by PBoC Governor Zhou (Where's Waldo) Xiaochuan that the country's excessive stockpile of USD reserves has to be urgently diversified, today we get a sense of just how big the upcoming Chinese defection from the "buy US debt" Nash equilibrium will be. Not surprisingly, China appears to be getting ready to cut its USD reserves by roughly the amount of dollars that was recently printed by the Fed, or $2 trilion or so. And to think that this comes just as news that the Japanese pension fund will soon be dumping who knows what. So, once again, how about that "end of QE" again?
..
While China is certainly tired of recycling US Dollars, it still has no viable alternative, especially as long as its own currency is relegated to the C-grade of not even SDR-backing currencies. But that will all change very soon. Once the push for broad Chinese currency acceptance is in play, the CNY and the USD will be unpegged, promptly followed by China dumping the bulk of its USD exposure, and also sending the world a message that US debt is no longer a viable investment opportunity.

And from there, for the Dollar, it's nowhere but down.  And metals will be where? 

2011 had been more turbulent in January/February, silver making significant gains, then giving most of them up.  April has been consistently upward, prices gaining momentum, no end in sight.  Economically, this could be an historic week.  Is this "The Week It All Goes Down?"  Pay attention now..  Things could start moving a lot faster..

Silver's Exploding!

$44.38 at 2:54 a.m. Central Standard.  Kitco chart found at Urban Survival.

Vídeo: Silver $50 in 2011 says John Embry,COMEX silver,Adrian Douglas & Webbots prediction.

Why Silver will continue to gain value in the near and far term.  Video interview.

Gold Exceeds $1,500 as Dollar Drops on Concern About U.S., European Debts  Stilted towards Gold, but Silver's there..

Gold for immediate delivery climbed as much as 0.3 percent to $1,500.43 an ounce before trading at $1,498.95 an ounce at 12:39 p.m. in Singapore. Bullion for June delivery in New York rose 0.4 percent to $1,500.90 an ounce. Silver reached the highest level in 31 years.

“The trigger for gold’s recent surge was the S&P downgrading of the U.S. credit rating,” said Gavin Wendt, founding director with MineLife Pty. Coupled with the debt turmoil in Europe and violence in the Middle East, “it’s a perfect storm for precious metals, including gold and silver.”

Will JPMorgan Now Make and Take 'Delivery' of Its Own Silver Shorts?

From Seeking Alpha.  Excerpts:

There is nothing inherently wrong and certainly nothing "illegal" about J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) gaining a vault license for storing and taking delivery of gold/silver/platinum/palladium from the futures markets known as NYMEX/COMEX. However, the speed, timing and manner in which the exchanges just granted it troubles us.
The process of being approved as a licensed vault or weigh-master/assayer for the NYMEX/COMEX futures exchange usually involves a careful security inspection of the vaults, a full report of that inspection, and a completely transparent package submitted to the U.S. Commodity Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC) for approval. This process will ordinarily consume considerably more than 45 days. Apparently, such correct and careful practices apply only to banks and independent storage facilities that are not J.P. Morgan Chase.
Some vault operators are more equal than others. JPM appears immune from processes that everyone else must suffer through. On March 15, 2011, the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) advised the CFTC that they had approved .P. Morgan's application to become a licensed vault facility, using a "self-certification" process. The newly licensed vault, located at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, NY, NY, is ready to roll as both “weighmaster” and depository, for delivery of gold, silver, platinum and palladium contracts, as of March 17, 2011, two days later.

Silver's prospects in the near term..

Kitco chart(and where I found the previous article) courtesy Urban Survival.

Silver surged above $37 an ounce to a 31 year high  From FXStreet.com.  Excerpts:

Precious Metals: Gold rose for a sixth consecutive session as prices neared a record high. Spot gold’s record high of $1444.40 an ounce was set on March 7 previously. Unrest in Libya and the Middle East and Europe’s lingering debt crisis spurred demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Record low U.S. new home sales also increased speculation of extended central banks' accommodative policies. Silver surged above $37 an ounce to a 31 year high. Year to date, silver has outperformed gold, gaining over 20% compared to gold that is up just 1%.

Bullish momentum favoring gold, silver  From Commodity Online.  Excerpts:

Chart considerations suggest more upside for gold and silver, says BNP Paribas technical analyst Andrew Chaveriat. Spot silver hit a fresh 31-year high Wednesday.

“Bullish momentum favors a rise to $38.62 mega long-term resistance (76.4% retracement of the structural 1980-1993 decline) and perhaps the $40.00 psychological barrier,” Chaveriat says in a research note.

With everything happening all at once, don't forget to keep an eye on commodities.  It's a very important bellwether.

Silver's On The Rise Again..

Trading starts at $36.39 later this morning.  (Kitco chart via Urban Survival.)
Wow wow wow..

PRECIOUS METALS - European Opening View - Strong start for metals as silver clears $36/oz

The PGMs remain on the back burner this morning as gold and silver continue to dominate, opening higher in Asia with gold currently up 0.5% and silver a further 2.3% touching a fresh 31-year peak of $36.51 a short while ago, leading the AU/AG ratio below 40:1 for the first time in 13-years. The new highs in silver could prompt some profit taking later in the day but with the situation in the MENA region still extremely volatile and oil continuing rise both gold & silver are likely to extend on a mix of safe-haven and anti-inflationary hedging with silver set to challenge $38-40/oz but ultimately the all-time record of $50/oz.

Silver's At 30 Year Highs-What's In Store Next Week?

Kitco's Silver Chart at the end of trading, February 18, 2011.
After sifting through several wonky-ass, for-members-only worded articles on what the implications of Silver's rise actually means, I'll distill it for you like this: Silver's demand is at least twice its availability. Silver will continue to rise, despite JP Morgan's every effort to manipulate the price downward. JP Morgan will eventually be destroyed by its huge amount of Shorts(betting against Silver). The two guys at the end of Trading Places will be JP Morgan.

Lots of people will then laugh at JP Morgan's misfortune. Long live Physical Silver!

Silver's One-Thin-Dime Away From $30 An Ounce..

12:55 p.m. CST $29.90/oz. The link's to Urban Survival's Kitco chart at the top of the page. Oh yeah, it's already broken $30 today, and is hanging out just below that mark. Will it break the barrier at the close of today's trading? Monday, Monday..

Long Term Silver Prices Can't Be Stopped, But The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Is Still Gonna Try, Baby..

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raises margins on commodities again, Excerpts:

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is continuing its assault to stem the speculation on commodities that threaten to go parabolic due to the Fed's QE2 and subsequent inflation.

Last week, silver took a plunge immediately after the CME raised margin rates 30% from $5000.00 to $6500.00, and it is affecting other commodities such as copper as well.

Tyler Durden from ZeroHedge says:

Look for a second round of imminent margin hikes in cotton, sugar, coffee and wheat, as the exchanges are suddenly very concerned about what retail margin collapses may mean for the non-existent wealth effect.

Change is afoot, friends, and all sectors of our (and the world's) economy are fluid. Watching CNBC will be so much more exciting in the coming weeks, so stay tuned!