Showing posts with label federal reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label federal reserve. Show all posts

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Guest Post: Alan Greenspan Asked For Advice, Do People Ever Learn?

BAM.  Thanks, Alan!  James Miller via Zero Hedge drops the hammer.  Excerpts:

Unbelievable.



That is the only way to express this author’s utter bewilderment that former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan is still given an outlet to speak his mind. Actually, I am surprised Mr. Greenspan has the audacity to show his face, let alone speak, in public after the economic destruction he is responsible for.
It was because of Greenspan, of course, that the world economy is still muddling its way along with painfully high unemployment. His decision to prop up the stock market with money printing under any and every threat of a downtick in growth, also known as the Greenspan Put, created an environment of easy credit, reckless spending, and along with the federal government’s initiatives to encourage home ownership, the foundation from which a housing bubble could emerge.


It was moral hazard bolstering on a massive scale. Wall Street quickly learned (and the lesson sadly continues today) that the Federal Reserve stands ready to inflate should the Dow begin to plummet by any significant amount. Following his departure from the chairmanship and bursting of the housing bubble, Greenspan quickly took to the press and denied any responsibility for financial crisis which was a result in due part to the crash in home prices. In his infamous 2009 Wall Street Journal editorial, he had the nerve to blame availability of credit which financed the run-up in home prices to a “savings glut” in Asia. He writes.
[T]he presumptive cause of the world-wide decline in long-term rates was the tectonic shift in the early 1990s by much of the developing world from heavy emphasis on central planning to increasingly dynamic, export-led market competition. The result was a surge in growth in China and a large number of other emerging market economies that led to an excess of global intended savings relative to intended capital investment. That ex ante excess of savings propelled global long-term interest rates progressively lower between early 2000 and 2005.
Sounds convincing right?

Much of the aura of greatness attributed to Greenspan throughout his term as chairman was due in part to the purposefully overly-technical language he used when talking to reporters. Here he utilized the same technique, albeit in a simpler manner, to obscure the Fed’s role in the housing bubble. His explanation falls on its face though when looking at key historical data and by asking the right questions.
..
And as economist George Reisman brilliantly shows, the “savings glut” argument doesn’t stand when taking into account the following questions and observations:



First, if saving had been responsible, rather than credit expansion and the increase in the quantity of money, there would have been a corresponding decline in consumer spending in the countries allegedly doing the saving. The fact is that there was no such decline.

Second, saving implies a growing supply of capital goods, more production, and lower prices, including lower prices of capital goods and even of land. These are results that are incompatible with the widespread increases in prices typically found in a bubble.


Third, if somehow saving had been responsible for the housing bubble, the spending it financed would not suddenly have stopped. Such stoppage is a consequence of the end of credit expansion and the revelation of a lack of capital.


Fourth, if large-scale saving rather than credit expansion had been present, banks and other firms would have possessed more capital, not less. They would not be in their present predicament of having inadequate capital to carry on their normal operations. This situation of insufficient capital is the result of malinvestment and over consumption, which are the consequences of credit expansion, not saving.


Fifth, in the absence of increases in the quantity of money and overall volume of spending in the economic system, saving also implies an immediate tendency toward a fall in the economy wide average rate of profit. This is another result that is incompatible with what is observed in a bubble or boom of any kind, which is surging profits so long as “the good times” last.

It should be perfectly clear at this point that Greenspan holds the majority of the blame for the housing bubble. And yet many financial media outlets still see the former central banker as a type of guru on global economic affairs.

That reverence seems to be fading quickly.  By this fall, people should (finally!)have a very different opinion of Alan Greenspan, all the choices he's made, and where those choices have brought all of us. Right now, it's still the economists and information junkies and people his policies destroyed.  More to arrive shortly, to be sure.. 

Monday, March 7, 2011

Silver's On The Rise Again..

Trading starts at $36.39 later this morning.  (Kitco chart via Urban Survival.)
Wow wow wow..

PRECIOUS METALS - European Opening View - Strong start for metals as silver clears $36/oz

The PGMs remain on the back burner this morning as gold and silver continue to dominate, opening higher in Asia with gold currently up 0.5% and silver a further 2.3% touching a fresh 31-year peak of $36.51 a short while ago, leading the AU/AG ratio below 40:1 for the first time in 13-years. The new highs in silver could prompt some profit taking later in the day but with the situation in the MENA region still extremely volatile and oil continuing rise both gold & silver are likely to extend on a mix of safe-haven and anti-inflationary hedging with silver set to challenge $38-40/oz but ultimately the all-time record of $50/oz.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Another Example Of How We Don't Understand What's Destroying Us..

Two Views on The Bernank Gonzalo Lira points out the different reporting of Fed Chief Bernanke's speech last week. The American version of what happened is quite a bit different than, well, everyone else's..

..The American media is focusing on an obvious political nonstarter: The idea that the budget ceiling will not be raised.
..
The foreign media, on the other hand, is focusing on something that really matters: How the U.S. is exporting inflation, especially food price inflation, which is leading to social unrest.
..
Compare:
The New York Times reports in the lead of its story,

The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, warned Congressional
Republicans on Thursday not to “play around with” a coming vote to raise the government’s legal borrowing limit
or use it as a bargaining chip for spending cuts.

..
Contrast those lead paragraphs with these from the UK’s Telegraph (not
exactly a bastion of Lefty thinking
):Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has dismissed the idea that the central bank’s policies are to blame for the rise in global food prices to a record high that helped trigger political unrest in Egypt.

..
The Times and the rest of the American mainstream media is focused on a non-issue—while the rest of the world is focusing on something that matters: Food price rises, and the perception that America is exporting inflation.

The American financial media’s thing about the Federal government debt ceiling is sort of silly—everyone knows that the debt ceiling will be raised.

But food price inflation is real. The riots in Egypt are real—and they have nothing to do with “Muslim extremists”, or even Mubarak’s dictatorship: They’re about food prices, plain and simple, which have been steadily rising ever since the Federal Reserve’s loose money policies and various versions of QE have driven commodity prices to the moon.

Lira's right: Theatrics aside, the debt ceiling will be raised. Journalistically; not a big deal at all. Rising food costs triggering global, social unrest.. Of course that's the bigger story. And the bigger question? Why is there such a disconnect between American media's coverage/perspective and the World's? Yes, it was rhetorical.