The two kinds of 'Arab spring' revolutions

The Breakdown from Xymphora:   


There are two kinds of 'Arab spring' revolutions:



those that start somewhere, perhaps for purely local reasons, but quickly spread throughout the entire country due to a wide-spread desire for radical change (e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen); and


those that are based in some areas of the country and, despite the fact there are perfectly good reasons for the whole country to revolt, are based solely on local problems, are ethnically or religiously grounded, and refuse to spread (Syria, Libya).


"While the regime of President Bashar Assad has cracked down on smaller cities in Syria, residents of the nation's large cities, including Aleppo and the capital Damascus, seem ambivalent about staging mass protests." 'Ambivalent' is a funny way of putting it. They have been given every encouragement to revolt, and yet have weighed the possible outcomes, and clearly prefer the current regime to the possible replacements.
 
Let's talk about Yemen, man..
 
The Arab Spring Six Months Later  Gallery at link.
 
But where does the so-called Arab Spring stand? Full-on revolutions are remaking such regional heavyweights as Egypt and smaller states like Tunisia. But even as it grows harder and harder with every passing week to keep track of the proliferating unrest and revolt, it's clear that we are still only witnessing the earliest stages of what will undoubtedly mark a watershed episode in the history of the Arab world. And as such political moments go, much of the scene today is vicious, bloody, and uncertain.
 
The bombs keep falling in Libya.
 
Just in case you've forgotten about Palestine, Israel, and Syria..
 

A Major Milestone In The Spreading Middle Eastern Uprisings Just Occurred, And Went Un-Noticed.

Anti-government protesters may have been hit with nerve gas, doctors say..  This marks a Huge uptick of evil from the Saleh regime to Yemeni Anti-Government protesters. Gaddafi hasn't even gassed his people..  Yet..  From The Australian.  Excerpts:

DOCTORS from the scene of violent anti-government protests in Yemen's capital said that what was thought to be tear gas fired by government forces on demonstrators may have been nerve gas, which is forbidden under international law.

Military personnel opened fire on Tuesday night and used what was originally assumed to be tear gas to disperse a group of demonstrators who were trying to bring additional tents into the protest area outside Sanaa University.
And:
Earlier reports indicated that the gas used was tear gas, but doctors who have been treating the wounded refuted that claim today.

"The material in this gas makes people convulse for hours. It paralyses them. They couldn't move at all. We tried to give them oxygen but it didn't work," said Amaar Nujaim, a field doctor who works for Islamic Relief.

"We are seeing symptoms in the patient's nerves, not in their respiratory systems. I'm 90 per cent sure its nerve gas and not tear gas that was used," said Sami Zaid, a doctor at the Science and Technology Hospital in Sanaa.

Mohammad Al-Sheikh, a pathologist at the same hospital, said that some of the victims had lost their muscular control and were forced to wear diapers.

Yeah; That's nice..  And the rest of the country seems to be collectively gearing up for a fight..  From the Chicago Tribune.  Excerpts:

"This is the moment. We cannot go back from here," said protester Wael Sakkif, pointing to the blood on the pavement. "This is all Yemen's blood."

The unrest followed a large riot in the nation's largest prison as inmates added their voices to demands for Saleh's removal, news reports and human rights groups said.

Prisoners set mattresses and blankets on fire Monday and marched into the central courtyard of the facility in Sana, the capital. Police used tear gas and fired live ammunition to disperse them. Twenty-five inmates were injured, said Amal Basha, chairwoman of the Sisters Arab Forum, a rights group.

And:

Protesters and opposition figures say the government is trumping up internal threats to gain domestic and international support for Saleh, a key U.S. ally in the battle against Islamic Islamist militants. The Yemeni government has long fought an armed separatist movement, a rebel insurgency and the growth of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, an Al Qaeda offshoot based in Yemen's tribal areas.
And:
.. negotiations collapsed late last week, and there has been "a total breakdown of talks" between opposition leaders and Saleh, said Aidroos Naqeeb, head of the Yemeni Socialist Party.

The number of police vehicles, soldiers and trucks armed with water cannons deployed in Sana increased this week.

A government news release stated that the increased security measures were in response to "multiple terror attacks on security and army personnel" last weekend, but tension at the anti-Saleh camp increased anyway.

"It looks like the government is getting ready for a fight," one protester said.

The use of nerve gas, IF true, is a major escalation as to what Saleh (And the rulers of the next country to fall, and the next..) is capable of, what will be utilized, and how far he'll go, all for the sake of retaining power.  Saleh has shown his hand.  What will happen next? 

In Other Middle Eastern/North African News..

Yemen on agenda as PM lands in Oman  Psst..  Yemen.  You're freaking England out.  PM David Cameron's talking to Oman behind your back..

The threat of terrorism from an unstable Yemen will be high on the agenda for Prime Minister David Cameron as he ends a four-day Middle East tour in neighbouring Oman.
..
Mr Cameron met with Omani Sultan Qaboos Bin Said last night in part to thank the country for its key logistical role as a "bridge" for UK armed forces deploying to Afghanistan.

Yemen leader defiant; Oman officials booted

Yemen's besieged president defiantly rejected a proposal Saturday to leave office early and possibly end weeks of protests and bloodshed, while Oman's ruler pushed out three more top-level officials in attempts to quell widening demands for economic reforms and justice for the killing of a demonstrator.

Turkish Defense Exports To Mideast Unaffected By Revolts 

Just when Turkey’s local industry thought it caught a niche in several Middle Eastern markets, the region began to shake with popular revolts, but Ankara's export planners say "it is business as usual."

A senior procurement official dealing with exports of Turkish-made systems mostly to Middle Eastern and eastern markets said that previous contracts would not be affected by the revolts in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

"Egypt is a market and partner with previously signed contracts. Tunisia and Libya were prospective markets. They still are for the longer term. As the dust settles we will roll up our sleeves to help the (Turkish) industry for new contracts," he told Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review Thursday.

Kuwait awaits protests but is no stranger to upheaval

Kuwait has the Gulf's most powerful parliament, and opposition lawmakers already have taken bold shots at the ruling emir's inner circle, including two no-confidence motions since December 2009 that nearly brought down the prime minister. The plan now is to take demands for a political overhaul to the streets.
..
Libya and Yemen are all-or-nothing fights to bring down the leadership. Oman seemingly has cooled after an angry start — with protesters staging sit-ins to push for more jobs while being careful not to speak ill of the lute-playing sultan who has ruled for 40 years. Bahrain's protests tap into deep-rooted claims of discrimination by the majority Shiites against the Sunni monarchy.

The rumblings in Saudi Arabia — where protesters have called for a show of force Friday — seek even small breaks in the absolute control in the ruling House of Saud.
..
Kuwait joins the protest roster with quite a bit of experience. Its opposition bloc in parliament — a mix of Islamists and reformists — has gone toe-to-toe for years with the hand-picked government of the emir, Sheik Sabah Al Ahmed Al Sabah, over allegations that include financial mismanagement and attempts to roll back political freedoms. The dissident lawmakers draw heavily from the desert provinces outside Kuwait City, where many feel cut out of oil wealth.

The most significant change this week could be adding pro-reform youth groups into the fray. At a strategy meeting last week, some organizers of new youth-oriented factions — including one called Kafi, or Enough, in Arabic — pledged to occupy a main square in Kuwait City to copy the round-the-clock stand by demonstrators in Bahrain's Pearl Square.

This is Western Africa,  but it's relevant..  Ivory Coast 'forgotten emergency'

Chals Wontewe, Oxfam's Country Director in Liberia said: "This could become Africa's latest forgotten crisis. Thousands of civilians are fleeing for their lives yet the international community is failing to respond adequately. The world risks being seriously unprepared for the escalating crisis in West Africa.

"For more than three months now the people of Ivory Coast have been living with the threat of violence, intimidation, economic collapse and sexual assault. The situation is now deteriorating rapidly and urgent action is needed to avert a humanitarian crisis. The conditions for refugees and communities hosting them in Liberia are extremely worrying. People are in dire need of the very basics - clean water, food and shelter."

Tensions ignited in Ivory Coast following the contested presidential election in November 2010 and has resulted in months of instability and a steep increase in violent clashes in the past week. As well as rising political and military tensions, many banks remain closed, prices of basic goods are rocketing and more than 500,000 people have lost their jobs.

It' on..  Rebel violence, looting continue to spread in Ivory Coast

Rebels opposed to the strongman Laurent Gbagbo seized a town near the Liberian border yesterday, a rebel spokesman said, in a further sign of Ivory Coast’s possible slide toward civil war.

A top commander of Gbagbo-allied forces in the west, near the border, declined to comment, but the head of a leading civil society organization in the region confirmed that the town of Toulepleu had fallen to the rebels, extending an advance in which they have taken several small towns on the Liberian frontier in the past 10 days.

A weeklong campaign of looting and burning in Abidjan aimed at the homes of ministers allied with Gbagbo’s rival, Alassane Ouattara, continued yesterday, underscoring the growing lawlessness in this sprawling economic capital.

Ouattara won a presidential election in November, according to most of the international community, but Gbagbo refused to step aside. The standoff prevailing here since then has taken an increasingly violent turn.