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The Breakdown from Xymphora:
There are two kinds of 'Arab spring' revolutions:
those that start somewhere, perhaps for purely local reasons, but quickly spread throughout the entire country due to a wide-spread desire for radical change (e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen); and
those that are based in some areas of the country and, despite the fact there are perfectly good reasons for the whole country to revolt, are based solely on local problems, are ethnically or religiously grounded, and refuse to spread (Syria, Libya).
"While the regime of President Bashar Assad has cracked down on smaller cities in Syria, residents of the nation's large cities, including Aleppo and the capital Damascus, seem ambivalent about staging mass protests." 'Ambivalent' is a funny way of putting it. They have been given every encouragement to revolt, and yet have weighed the possible outcomes, and clearly prefer the current regime to the possible replacements.
Let's talk about Yemen, man..
The Arab Spring Six Months Later Gallery at link.
But where does the so-called Arab Spring stand? Full-on revolutions are remaking such regional heavyweights as Egypt and smaller states like Tunisia. But even as it grows harder and harder with every passing week to keep track of the proliferating unrest and revolt, it's clear that we are still only witnessing the earliest stages of what will undoubtedly mark a watershed episode in the history of the Arab world. And as such political moments go, much of the scene today is vicious, bloody, and uncertain.
The bombs keep falling in Libya.
Just in case you've forgotten about Palestine, Israel, and Syria..
Lebanese Fear Collateral Damage From Syrian Crisis. NPR. Excerpts:
The unrest in neighboring Syria has the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli on edge. Thousands of refugees have poured over the border, the demand for weapons is skyrocketing, and the pro-Syrian Alawite minority is warning of chaos if Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime falls.
Though Hezbollah is the best known of the pro-Syrian actors in Lebanon, residents in Tripoli are more worried about the Alawites, members of the same minority that has ruled Syria for more than 40 years. Their numbers may be small, but they are well-armed and fiercely loyal to Damascus
The Alawite community of Jabal Mohsen stands on the hill above Bab al-Tabbaneh, a poor Sunni neighborhood in Tripoli. Three years ago, it was the scene of intense armed clashes that left dozens dead and hundreds of families displaced. Nobody here wants to see that repeated.
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Rifaat Eid, who heads the Alawite Arab Democratic Party, agrees with Syria's argument that chaos will erupt across the region if Assad's regime is threatened.
"If anything happens in Syria, all the Middle East will be divided," he says. "The serious danger in this is that all the minorities will end in the Middle East, especially the Christians, OK? And I will tell you, as minorities the Jewish will — can't — afford to stay in the Middle East."
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Sunni leaders see the situation differently. Lawmaker Khaled Daher says the catastrophic warnings from Syria and its supporters are simply a tired replay from the Arab dictator's playbook: Back me or face chaos.
"The Syrians are very good at putting fear into people," he says. "I mean, their problem is with their people. They want rights, democracy; this is what they should be working on, their problems with their people. Instead, what are they doing? From the beginning, you know, the Syrians have tried to move the focus from their problem to others."
Egypt gas pipeline to Israel and Jordan explodes BBC. Found it on Godlike Productions.
"An unknown armed gang attacked the gas pipeline," an unnamed security source told Reuters, adding that the flow of gas to Israel and Jordan had been hit.
No letup in Syrian crackdown on protesters Arab News. Excerpts:
Residents of the southern Syrian city of Daraa braved sniper fire Tuesday to pull the bullet-riddled bodies of the dead from the streets and hide them from security forces, a day after a brutal government crackdown on the popular revolt against President Bashar Assad, witnesses said.
As heavy gunfire reverberated through Daraa, a Syrian human rights group said authorities detained dozens of people across the country, mainly in several Damascus suburbs, including the town of Douma and in the northern coastal city of Jableh.
A relentless crackdown since mid-March has killed more than 400 people across Syria, with 120 dead over the weekend, rights groups said. That has only emboldened protesters who started their revolt with calls for modest reforms but are now increasingly demanding Assad’s downfall.
Trying To Make Sense Of The Arab Spring The Moderate Voice. Excerpts:
* The big story is the feeling of empowerment that has swept the region. Arabs of all backgrounds now demand to be heard. This is primarily because of Al-Jazeera and social media.
* The dramatic three-week uprising in Egypt that culminated with the fall of Hosni Mubarak is, taking the most optimistic point of view, only the end of the beginning. The same applies to other countries where there have been successes.
* The need for a vigorous American public diplomacy has never been greater, but many of the very Republicans who excoriate the White House and State Department for its diplomatic efforts want to dramatically slash funding for such efforts.
* The sense of stalemate is palpable in much of the region, which makes it even more important that there be a clear U.S. policy and that it be hewed to for the long-haul. That, of course, has to include Israel, Palestine and Iran.
Yemen Parties to Meet in Saudi Arabia to Sign Accord for Saleh Departure
Yemeni opposition and ruling party officials will sign an accord for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down within 30 days and guarantee him immunity, said Mohammed Basendwah, head of the Preparatory Committee for National Dialogue.
The agreement, brokered by ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, will be signed early next week in Saudi Arabia, Basendwah said in a telephone interview from Sana’a. His committee, created in 2008 to help navigate an earlier political crisis, includes opposition, business and regional leaders. The accord came as anti-government protesters clashed with police today in two Yemeni cities.
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GCC officials are seeking to avert an escalation of the violence in Yemen or a deadly military divide like the one in Libya. Rising social unrest also threatens to strengthen al- Qaeda as it seeks to use Yemen, the poorest Arab nation, as a base from which to destabilize neighboring Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of crude oil.
This isn't good.. Bahrain expels Iranian diplomat as ties worsen
Bahrain ordered an Iranian diplomat to leave the island kingdom as ties between the two nations worsen and tensions rise between the Shiite powerhouse and Sunni Arab states in the oil-rich Persian Gulf.
The state-owned Bahrain News Agency reported late Monday that Hujatullah Rahmani, the second secretary at the Iranian Embassy in Manama, was declared persona non grata and ordered out within 72 hours.
Bahrain’s king declared martial law last month and invited about 1,500 Saudi-led troops from Gulf neighbors to help contain a Shiite uprising that Sunni leaders around the Middle East believe could open the way for greater influence by Iran.
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Opposition leaders in Bahrain have repeatedly denied Iran’s role in a wave of demonstrations and sit-ins by Bahrain’s Shiite majority demanding greater political freedoms and equal rights.
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