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No one in charge will listen, but it's good that someone finally said something. Zero Hedge. Excerpts:
A week ago we explained quite clearly why instead of encouraging self-defeating, short-termist behavior by promising to save Europe's insolvent countries if and when needed, which does nothing to resolves Europe's problems and make it worse in exchange for a brief respite from bond selling, the ECB should be doing precisely the opposite: encouraging local governments to understand that there is no magic bazooka from the central banks. Specifically we said that "this Catch 22 of confounding cause and event can continue seemingly indefinitely, although in reality it can't. Because fundamentally what the bond market does is keep sovereigns "honest" - just as Schauble said a week ago, Spanish yields at 7% are not the end of the world - instead what they are is a signal to the country to get its spending in control in order to reduce its deficit, and fundamentally get its house in order - yes, that means getting government spending to a sustainable level and firing hundreds of thousands of workers, as well as probably raising taxes even more. It also means pain all around, but the pain is inevitable and will only be worse the longer reality is denied." This logic is so clear that only a lifelong economist, PhD or Goldman apparatchik can not grasp it: sadly that accounts for most of the people "in charge."
Which is why we were delighted to read that at least one person "gets it" - Belgian national bank governor Luc Coene, the same Belgium that is also the clogged heart of the Burtonian bureaucratic labyrinth known as the EU, who told Belgium's two largest newspaper that "buying the bonds of these countries would only serve to weaken the ECB and do nothing to resolve underlying issues of competitiveness. “It makes no sense for the ECB to start financing those countries,” said Mr Coene, “It would only lead to the ECB taking on the whole public debt of Spain and Italy onto its balance sheet." Bingo.
Greece is boned, but Mario Draghi says "Everything's gonna be allllll right.." Zero Hedge. Excerpts:
On one hand we have Mario Draghi promising he has a magic wand (not a printer - remember the keys to that are now held by Angela Merkel who is on vacation) and to "believe him" that the EUR will survive. On the other we have Greece which is a poster child of everything that is wrong in Europe. And that we summarize as follows: i) an epic and now relentless deposit outflow from Greek banks which continues as all trust in the local banking system is now gone, as €7 billion in deposits or the second biggest amount ever, is pulled and 20% of the entire corporate and household deposit base has vaporized in the past year, and ii) an economy in which it is every man for himself and where nobody pays any taxes any more, period. Best of luck in preserving that EUR Super Mario.
And a quick story on which Greece will never be fixed no matter what magic Draghi and Potter concoct between them:
The Financial Crimes Squad (SDOE) on Thursday reported that six in 10 businesses inspected at popular tourist resorts were not issuing sales receipts, and that of the 1,410 checks conducted in July, 57.1 percent found business owners to be in breach of the law.
..
In Zakynthos in the Ionian and Rethymno on Crete, every business inspected was breaking the law, while on the islands of Paros and Myconos, 70 percent were avoiding taxes.
No deposits, and no tax revenues: thank you Germany for continuing to fund this slow motion trainwreck thus providing everyone with hours of taxpayer-subsidized entertainment.
I think he's being sarcastic. I don't think he thinks it's really entertainment.
Greece's economic fate hangs in the balance, and will be decided shortly. A sampling of the calm before the potential beginning of the Global Financial Super Storm.. Selections from Der Spiegel(via The Extinction Protocol) and Zero Hedge. Excerpts:
Greeks empty bank accounts ahead of historic election (Der Spiegel)
Many Greeks are emptying their bank accounts out of fear that the country may return to the drachma. But most of the money is not going abroad. Instead, individuals are storing cash in safe deposit boxes or at home — leading to an increase in burglaries. Joanna Stavropoulos is not proud of what she has done. “I had a guilty conscience when I withdrew my money from Greece,” says the 43-year-old. Of course she knew what would happen if everybody does the same: Greece’s banks would be threatened with collapse. But she says she had to think of her two-month-old daughter, Josephina, who is currently asleep on Joanna’s shoulder. Increasing numbers of Greeks are following Joanna Stavropoulos’ example and emptying their accounts. They are afraid that Greece may leave the euro zone and return to the drachma. Stavropoulos is one of the few people who know very well what this scenario would look like in concrete terms. As a journalist and NGO worker, she has traveled all over the world, most recently in Haiti and Iraq. “I have been to countries where banks closed,” she says. She was in Argentina, for example, when the government declared a national default. She has also lived in Zimbabwe, where three-digit inflation destroyed the currency. Joanna is sure that Greece could face the same thing if it returns to the drachma. “My country is going downhill,” she says. There is still little sign of panic in Greece, and there has not been a stampede to the banks. Nevertheless, people are withdrawing hundreds of millions of euros from the banks every day. In May alone, outflows totaled €5 billion. According to official figures, €80 billion has been withdrawn since the start of the crisis. Rich Greeks have long been moving billions to countries such as Italy or Switzerland, or buying luxury properties in London. But overall, according to estimates by the Greek central bank, only about one-fifth of the total money withdrawn has gone abroad. Many customers have left their money in the bank itself, Christiana says — but in a safe deposit box rather than in their accounts.
As Greek Banks Run Out Of Safe Deposit Boxes, An Eerie Calm Takes Over The Country 24 Hours Before D-Day (Zero Hedge.)
Oddly enough, despite the all too real dangers of a complete lock out by and of the local banks, Greeks refuse to believe that the worst case scenario could realistically happen:
There is still little sign of panic in Greece, and there has not been a stampede to the banks. Nevertheless, people are withdrawing hundreds of millions of euros from the banks every day. In May alone, outflows totaled €5 billion. According to official figures, €80 billion has been withdrawn since the start of the crisis.
Which however is not to say that most people have not already commenced preparations:
Christiana (not her real name) can see the capital flight every day with her own eyes. The 46-year-old, who wishes to remain anonymous, works as an asset manager at a large Greek bank. "It's not just that it is increasing," she says of the withdrawals. It's not only major customers who have been taking out money in recent months, she explains, but all kinds of clients, from account holders with a few hundred euros to the bank's most important private customers. "Naturally, the wealthy ask particularly often what they should do with their money," she says.
Yet the most ironic moment in the Greek denouement will come when fractional reserve lending collapses onto itself:
Stavropoulos and her friends have a new strategy to deal with their daily expenses. "We charge everything to our credit cards," she says. If the Greek banks fail, they won't be able to collect the outstanding debts, she argues. "If they want to mess me around, I will do the same to them."
In other words, Greece is now America, where the vast majority of people also live on credit alone, and have taken up the following motto when dealing with banks: "you pretend to be solvent, we pretend to have money."
At the end of the day, it is all just one big global monetary circle jerk, only this time in reverse, as the snake of fractional reserve banking has finally started to eat its own tail. With people spending money they don't have, and in debt to their eyeballs to a banking system that itself is just as insolvent, is there any wonder that nobody really panics any more over daily threats the grand reset is finally coming?
But in the end, it probably won't even matter..
Citi's Buiter: Greece will be forced out of the euro regardless of who wins the Sunday elections. (Zero Hedge)
New Democracy. Syriza. Doesn't matter. According to Citi's senior political analyst Tina Fordham, chief economist Willem Buiter, and global economist Ebrahim Rahbari, "any new Greek government, regardless of its composition, will struggle with implementation challenges related to the imposition of further austerity measures demanded by the Troika in exchange for further assistance," and as a result, they "consider it likely that a new troika deal would ultimately fall apart and lead to Grexit."
Citi notes that there is growing sense among European leaders that "promotion of economic growth can no longer be subordinated completely, even in fiscally unsustainable euro area member states, to the requirements of fiscal austerity," but no one has any idea what that means.
We will find out soon. Riots will probably be forthcoming. Cue Riot Dog, stage left..
If Greece Exits, Here Is What Happens Zero Hedge thinks maybe/grain of salt. More importantly, will Greece follow Iceland or Germany? Greek skata hits fan in three.. Two..
An unprecedented financial crisis is lurking on the horizon as Market Oracle warns of Greece’s exit from the Eurozone The Extinction Protocol. Excerpts:
What may be lost in the noise that is the mainstream press is the fact that Greece has not been in a recession or even a depression, Greece has been in a state of slow motion economic collapse on the scale of past economic collapses such as that of Argentina but so far without the ability to default, devalue and inflate.
And:
Greek politicians traded insults and accusations Sunday following an effort by President Karolos Papoulias to broker a coalition government, increasing the possibility of new elections in the debt-stricken country. Papoulias called together the leaders of the three biggest parties on Sunday, a week after indecisive elections and three failed attempts to form a government. A default by Greece could drag down other troubled governments such as Spain and Portugal. Europe is keeping a nervous eye on Greece, fearing that the political chaos there could lead to defaults on debt that could threaten the future of the euro. Greek failure — or refusal — to make debt payments could hurt banks across Europe. The eurozone economy is fragile, and any financial shock could plunge the region into a deep recession, a development that would ripple across the globe. A default by Greece also could drag down other troubled governments such as Spain and Portugal.
Merkel's CDU Trounced In Most Populous State Elections Over Austerity; Pirates Strong Also from Zero Hedge. Excerpts:
Another weekend, another stunner in local European elections, this time as Merkel's CDU gets a record low vote in the state elections of Germany's most populous state North Rhein-Westphalia. According to a preliminary projections by ARD, the breakdown is as follows:
•SPD:39%
•CDU: 26%
•Greens:12%
•Pirates: 7.5%
•FDP: 8.5%
•Left:2.5%
And:
Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives suffered a crushing defeat on Sunday in an election in Germany's most populous state, exit polls showed, a result which could embolden the left opposition to step up attacks on her European austerity policies.
Merkel remains popular at home for her steady handling of the euro zone debt crisis, but the sheer scale of her party's defeat represents a heavy blow that could tilt the German political landscape and leave her more vulnerable to domestic critics.
According to an exit poll for public broadcaster ARD, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) won 39 percent of the vote and will have enough to form a stable majority with the Greens, who scored 12 percent.
The two left-leaning parties had run a fragile minority government for the past two years under popular SPD leader Hannelore Kraft, whose decisive victory on Sunday could propel her to national prominence.
Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) saw their support plunge to just 26 percent, down from nearly 35 percent in 2010, and the worst result in the state since World War Two.
Merkel's attention will now be divided between the financial crisis and domestic concerns, like keeping her job. I think Germany has begun to de-stabilize. Albeit a long way away, this vote was a pretty visible step in that direction..
Three JPMorgan executives expected to resign over $2 billion loss This is only the beginning. Of everything.. Raw Story. Excerpts:
Three top executives at JPMorgan are expected to resign this week in the wake of a $2 billion trading loss.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that the three include Ina R. Drew, the head of the risk-management division responsible for the loss, along with the top executive and a managing director at the London branch that placed the trades under her direction.
According to several JPMorgan executives, Drew had offered her resignation several times since the extent of the losses became known in late April, but CEO Jamie Dimon had previously refused to accept it.
The situation changed however, when Dimon revealed the loss on Thursday and it led to a 10% drop in the firm’s stock price the next day. “We made a terrible, egregious mistake,” Dimon has since admitted. ‘There’s almost no excuse for it.”
The Jaime Dimon Countdown-To-Quitting clock begins!
Australia the most ‘obvious’ bubble in 30 years, says economist Financial Post. Excerpts:
As far as bubbles go, they don’t get more obvious than Australia, according to one economist and noted bear.
Albert Edwards, economist with Société Générale, put out a note on Thursday morning whose title says it all: “The biggest bubble in recent history is heading for the mother of all hard landings.”
Mr. Edwards cites Australia’s extreme reliance on the Chinese economy as the foundation for the current bubble. After all, Australia, a global heavyweight in mining, is dependent on the global commodity boom that China has largely helped fuel over the last decade.
“All we have in Australia, at its simplest, is a credit bubble built upon a commodity boom dependent for its sustenance on an even greater credit bubble in China,” he said.
And:
Mr. Edwards adds that the current bubble has been precipitated by the fact that Australia has not experienced a recession for more than 20 years — making investors complacent as a result.
“The absence of any recession since 1991 has led Australians to have an excessive appetite for debt in the belief the future will reflect the past,” he said.
And complacency, of course, is a big factor in bubble creation. That has led Mr. Edwards to conclude the following about Australia:
“Of all the bubbles I have seen over the last 30 years in this industry, this one is even more obvious than the rather prominent nose on my increasingly haggard face,” he said.
Greece passes steep cuts as riots seize capital AOL News. Day One of Everything's Different Now. Excerpts:
The cuts and tax increases passed 155-138, with five voting "present" and backing neither side. During the vote, stun grenades echoed across a square outside Parliament. Acrid clouds of tear gas and orange and green smoke-bomb mist hung in the air.
Several banks and storefronts were smashed, while a Socialist dissenter who backed the government at the last minute, Alexandros Athanassiadis, was briefly assaulted by protesters after leaving Parliament on foot.
Violence continued throughout the afternoon, and smoke billowed from a post office beneath the finance ministry before a fire was put out. Rioters set up burning barricades along Syntagma Square, where demonstrators have staged a sit-in for the past month. Nearby streets were littered with chunks of smashed marble and ripped-up paving stones that had been thrown at police.
A general strike that began Tuesday paralyzed the country, grounding planes, leaving ferries docked and stranding tourists during the busy summer season.
Greece Implodes and War Declared…over 5,000 Police overwhelmed This was the day before the Austerity Budget was approved. The Ante is now Upped.
Violent Scenes In Athens As Bloody Greek Riots Keep On Raging Video from the 29th courtesy of Russia Today, the most trusted name for American News..
And yeah Riot Dog IS Fucking Awesome. Riot Dog stands with The People. Riot Dog is coming for ya..
The Real Deal begins later today. My gut says Austerity measures pass, and Athens begins to ROCK shortly afterward.. If Austerity fails.. The Greek economy goes into collapse, and Athens begins to ROCK shortly afterward. Maybe, maybe not. But the Greeks do like to riot, and they're really good at it.. (By no means is this an insult, either. The No Bullshit political will of the Greek people is inspiring to others living in more complacent regions of the world. It's good to see that spirit alive and well.. Somewhere..)
Greece and Europe brace for austerity measures vote The Sofia Echo. Excerpts:
Greek lawmakers, under the watchful eyes of the rest of the world, are due to vote on a second round of austerity measures that sparked nationwide strikes and violent riots on June 28.
The vote will be held later on June 29.
The outcome of the vote will be vital for the stability of the European economy and for the future stability of Greece which is facing bankruptcy. Resembling a typical Greek drama, the voting process itself has become rife with accusations of betrayal and treachery following revelations in Greek media that there are mavericks in both camps who could sway the result unexpectedly.
..
If the government fails to pass the austerity measures, Greece will go bankrupt. The proposed measures will affect the public sector and will consist of the sale of assets as well as higher taxes and more spending cuts.
Massive protests are expected on the streets of central Athens and outside Syntagma Square in front of the parliament building, protests which have the potential to turn violent judging from the past.
WRAPUP 2-Greek lawmakers seen backing austerity, future unsure Reuters.
Greece's parliament looked increasingly likely to approve unpopular austerity measures on Wednesday, despite violent protests, to secure international funds to prevent the euro zone's first sovereign default.
But with the country on the brink of bankruptcy, it remains uncertain whether a weakened Socialist government can push through laws to implement structural reforms and privatisations in a second series of votes on Thursday, and then stick to a tight EU/IMF-imposed schedule for implementation.
Many economists and investors still expect Greece to default in the medium-term.
Greek leader 'dead man walking', Greek bailout 'collective punishment' Video courtesy Russia Today, via You Tube.
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