Jong-un’s top military protector abruptly loses all his positions

Something's afoot in Pyongyang.  Who let him go?  Kim Jong-un, or The Korean People's Army?  What's next?  Korea Joongang Daily.:


North Korean military chief Ri Yong-ho, 70, a key mentor to young leader Kim Jong-un, was dismissed from all his posts Sunday, the North’s Central News Agency (KCNA) said in a brief dispatch yesterday.



Ri was considered the second-most influential military figure in the North after Kim Jong-un, who is supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army.
According to the KCNA, the central committee of the Workers’ Party decided Sunday to “relieve Ri Yong-ho of all his posts for his illness” at a meeting held by the member of the political bureau, North Korea’s ultimate inner circle.


KCNA did not specifically mention Ri’s position as chief of the general staff of the Korean People’s Army. It named no replacement for him for any of the positions.


While KCNA cited illness as the reason, Jeon Hyun-jun, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, “We cannot rule out the possibility that Ri was dismissed because he lost a power struggle with other military leaders in the North.”


Ri was a member of the central presidium of the Workers’ Party and also vice chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission.


Ri, who was born in Tongchon, Kangwon Province in North Korea, joined the military in 1959 and was appointed lieutenant general of the Army in September 2003. He was promoted to general in 2009.


In September 2010, Ri emerged as a prominent military figure when the North convened its first parliamentary meeting in 44 years.


At the meeting, Ri was appointed vice marshal of the Army and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, holding the same rank as Kim Jong-un.


It was at the meeting that Kim Jong-un made his first public appearance. Analysts speculated that Ri’s speedy promotion was related to the plan for Kim Jong-un to succeed his father Kim Jong-il given the fact that Ri was often standing between the father and son at major events.


After former leader Kim Jong-il died last December, Ri is known to have played a role in helping Jong-un maintain control of the military. Ri accompanied Jong-un on his first several trips to military units.


Ri was also one of the eight top officials who escorted the funeral coach of Kim Jong-il last year, along with Jong-un and his uncle and protector Jang Song-thaek.


Although KCNA cited illness for Ri’s fall, speculation is rising that the North is in a major power struggle.


The South Korean government also remarked on the “unusual” nature in the surprise announcement.


“It’s considered unusual to hold a political bureau meeting on a Sunday, and unprecedented to discuss a personnel-related matter and also to dismiss such an influential figure,” said an official from South’s Unification Ministry.


“It looks like there may be some irrational goings-on within Pyongyang’s internal power structure.”


According to South Korean officials, records show that the North usually gives a grace period before dismissing an ailing official.


In the case of Jo Myong-rok, a top military official and a political heavyweight loyal to Kim Jong-il who died of heart disease in 2010 at the age of 82, despite his age and health problems, he retained his post.


“We have to see the move as an internal power feud,” said a senior government official, saying that Ri showed no sign of illness when he made a speech in late April at a meeting of top officials marking the 80th anniversary of the Army’s founding.


Ri was also cited in state media as having accompanied Kim Jong-un at public events as recently as last week. This year alone, Ri is known to have accompanied Kim Jong-un 32 times in public.


If I were a betting man, I'd bet Kim Jong-un's days are numbered.  I'd bet that no more than two months out, North Korea's power structure will change.  Follow up question:  How big might this coup turn out to be?


Yeah, I'd bet 20 bucks.

North Korea's nuclear test ready 'soon'

Kim Jong Un is working overtime to test global boundaries and push American buttons.  Inter Aksyon.  Excerpts:

 North Korea has almost completed preparations for a third nuclear test, a senior source with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters, which will draw further international condemnation following a failed rocket launch if it goes ahead.

The isolated and impoverished state sacrificed the chance of closer ties with the United States when it launched the long-range rocket on April 13 and was censured by the UN Security Council, including the North's sole major ally, China.


Critics say the rocket launch was aimed at honing the North's ability to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States, a move that would dramatically increase its military and diplomatic heft. (Which did not work, by the way..)


Now the North appears to be about to carry out a third nuclear test after two in 2006 and 2009.


"Soon. Preparations are almost complete," the source said when asked whether North Korea was planning to conduct a nuclear test.


This is the first time a senior official has confirmed the planned test and the source has correctly predicted events in the past, telling Reuters about the 2006 test days before it happened.


The rocket launch and nuclear test come as Kim Jong-un, the third of his line to rule North Korea, seeks to cement his grip on power.


Kim took office in December and has lauded the country's military might, reaffirming his father's "military first" policies that have stunted economic development and appearing to dash slim hopes of an opening to the outside world.


Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, which have most to fear from any North Korean nuclear threat, are watching events anxiously and many observers say that Pyongyang may have the capacity to conduct a test using highly enriched uranium for the first time.
And:
South Korean defense sources have been quoted in domestic media as saying a launch could come within two weeks and one North Korea analyst has suggested that it could come as early as the North's "Army Day" on Wednesday.



Other observers say that any date is pure speculation.
And:
Pyongyang desperately wants recognition from the United States, the guarantor of the South's security. It claims sovereignty over the entire Korean peninsula, as does South Korea.



"North Korea may consider abandoning (the test) if the United States agrees to a peace treaty," the source said, reiterating a long-standing demand by Pyongyang for recognition by Washington and a treaty to end the 1950-1953 Korean War, which ended in a truce


What I'd like to know, with finality, about North Korea's actions is this:  Are these random, angry, attention-seeking events the whim of Kim Jong Il's, and now Kim Jong Un's impulse and temper?  Or, is there Motive and Rationale behind each action?  Does the U.S. know this, thererfore diplomatically treating the country like a permissive parent does a petulant child?
 
Also, will Obama really view a nuclear test as an Act of War?  No matter what it is, Our (American) response will be interesting.  Personally, I think the failed rocket launch will factor in American assessment, even if the nuclear test proceeds.  They can build bombs, but they can't fly rockets.  They're still several years out from being a serious threat, and by then, America's diplomatic relationship with North Korea might be in a very different place..  
 
North Korea as political system cannot continue sustaining itself.  It's also a potentially HUUUUUUUGE untapped market for Capitalists world wide(after the peace treaty or collapse, whatever.).  Provided we can make it to that day, I can see a time where North Korea will be a peaceful, successful member of the global community, the beneficiary of both the world's goodwill and cutting-edge technology.  Without the threat of war, North Korea is a blank slate.  
 
(Me staying Positive and Optimistic)Think of the potential!