Estimating The Potential Impact Of Failure Of The Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 Spent Fuel Pool

Subtitled:  A Local Problem for Japan or a Global Mega Crisis?  Holophi.  Just The Abstract as excerpt, as this is a long read:

Extreme opinions are being voiced about the risk of global catastrophe resulting from a possible collapse of the Fukushima Daiichi unit 4 spent fuel pool.  These claims are appearing mostly among the public through Internet media and other non-­‐official channels.  Officials sources remain largely mute on the subject or downplay the risks.  This report provides an approximate bounding of the risks using available data.  The results of this analysis suggest that a nominal release of 10% of the SFP 4 inventory of cesium and strontium would represent 3-­‐10 times the March 2011 release amounts, substantially increasing risk levels in Japan and impacting marine life.  Release of 100% of the SFP 4 inventory, or 30-­‐100 times the March 2011 release amounts, could result in significant global impact.

Holophi's analysis is not necessarily a doomsday scenario globally, but even in the best of Reactor 4 collapse scenarios, even if the Spent Fuel has cooled to prevent a radiological fire as opposed to a major heat release, any event spells massive contamination for the great majority of Japan, and possibly globally.  Holophi's modeling is based on quantity approximations of SFP 4's fuel assemblies and their relative remaining heat.  They also note there's no accurate way to approximate a collapse scenario of the pool and how these 1331 to 1535 fuel assemblies will fall the 30 meters to the ground.  Yeah, our Best and Brightest were so sure nothing bad would ever happen to their precious Reactors that they built the highly dangerous Spent Fuel Pool 90 feet above the ground.  Nice.. 

The absolute best case scenario is that SFP 4's fuel assembly removal will take place (Starting in Late 2013) before another earthquake, explosion, or another variant event completely destroys Reactor 4.  Remember, this analysis doesn't include data regarding Reactors 1, 2, 3, or any combination event thereof.  The overall outlook for Fukushima is still bleak/dire to catastrophic.

Tsuruga Nuke Plant Reactor 2 May Have Been Sitting on Top of Active Fault All These Years

Like Fukushima and that new petrochemical fire, today's discovery is not terribly surprising; Just terrible.  EX-SKF.  Excerpts:

As the mayor of Tsuruga City was strongly promoting nuclear power generation in the county in China that has a nuclear power plant with 6 operating reactors and 4 under construction, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency warned the operator of Tsuruga Nuclear Power Plant that Reactor 2 of the plant may be sitting on an active fault.



Even in Japan, the national guideline is not expecting a reactor to be built on top of an active fault.
And:
On April 24, an expert in active faults and officials from the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) studied the area where the strata are exposed at JAPC's Tsuruga Nuclear Power Plant in Tsuruga City in Fukui Prefecture. They particularly looked at the crack called "fracture zone".



As the result, the expert pointed out that the crack that runs underground at about 150 meters west of Reactor 2 "may be an active fault, and it may move together with the active fault called Urazoko Fault that runs through the compound, making the shaking from an earthquake bigger than anticipated".


There is another crack that runs right beneath Reactor 2. It needs to be studied to determine if it is also an active fault. NISA has instructed JAPC to do the survey again.

When it comes to Japan's nuclear capabilities, this doesn't feel like the last colossal fuck up we'll  hear about, now does it?  Unsafe and unstable safety policies applied to substances that require the highest standards of safety and stability is a terrible path to follow, and the country of Japan probably has several more examples..  The question then being:  Can Earth handle it?
 
Related:  What shoe drops next?